Reality in Search of Peace

by Heingo

The changes that have taken place in the troubled North and the East since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Government and the LTTE should be fully appreciated. For anyone who had seen the country time and again under siege during the last two decades, the extent of normality witnessed now is a welcome sight.

Security is still very necessary as recent violations of the MOU have been reported from both sides, and it can be irksome. However, most parts of the country including the North and East are full of life and bustle. In the South it is now possible to drive on major roads without hindrance even in the early hours devoid of barricades. Hotels and resorts in the North, particularly the East are bustling once more with a reasonable compliment of foreign tourists and locals.

The war which was in progress for two decades in Sri Lanka has been described by Sinhala nationalists as a “phony” war. What they mean is that it has not been pursued with sufficient vigour to defeat the adversary, the LTTE. Their belief is that the war could be pursued much more forcefully but for one reason or another both the Peoples Alliance and UNP governments have failed to do so. They attribute the LTTE’s long string of military and naval successes to this.

Those who hold the above views do not seem to understand two matters of fundamental military importance. First, the very specific nature of the war and what it has meant in other theatres of identical conflict. Secondly, the cost of warfare as waged by a conventional force. Neither of these subjects has received the public discussion it requires.

The war in Sri Lanka is not a war between the conventional, professional, armed forces of two states. Nor is it a civil war in which a section of the state’s citizens make an armed attempt to overthrow the existing government and replace it with another to their liking, such as the failed uprisings of the JVP in 1971 and 1988/89. What is now in progress in Sri Lanka is a different type of war.

It is a war where a distinct ethnic group is fighting the state to establish a separate state in the areas where they are in a majority. Initially, this war which was conducted by guerrilla forces developed into a conventional force to expel the armed forces of the state from the North and the East to establish a Tamil Eelam.

Countries in Europe, Asia and Africa have also experienced similar wars. In some of these countries such wars have been concluded. Sri Lanka has a lesson to learn from such wars that have been concluded where peace has been achieved as well as in those that are still in progress. Ireland, Cyprus and Ethiopia are some of the countries where nationalist guerrilla wars for separation have been concluded and peace prevails.

The Irish nationalists waged a guerrilla war against the British to secure the secession of that island from U.K. When it became clear to the British government that they could not defeat the Irish guerrillas and restore authority the conflict was concluded under a treaty where they established an independent sovereign state.

In Cyprus the Turkish group which is smaller numerically than the Greek sought independence from Greek rule. After nearly a decade of guerrilla warfare which the Greek Cypriot army, was unable to quell Turkey invaded the northern part of Cyprus and helped establish the Turkish Cypriot Republic.

In Ethiopia the province of Eritrea fought a guerrilla war for separation. Ethiopian military made an all out effort to crush the guerrillas but failed. When Col. Mengitsu’s dictatorship collapsed peace was secured by the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia.

There is widespread desire in Sri Lanka to end the present war and secure peace. It is desirable to understand how it was achieved in the above mentioned cases. There are common features to which we should pay attention.

The superiority of the conventional forces of the state was of no avail. Guerrillas could not be completely destroyed after prolonged fighting. The guerrillas were not weakened, on the contrary they were stronger at the end than at the beginning of the long drawn out warfare and heavy losses could not compel the guerrillas to compromise to settle for a lesser alternative.

There are wars of this type now in progress in some of these countries. The Northern Ireland conflict broke out in 1968 demanding that Northern Ireland become a part of the Republic of Ireland so that the whole island of Ireland could form the Irish state.

Bosnia - Herzegovina which emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia in 1990 is another country where the Bosnian Serbs supported by arms and military advisors from the adjoining state of Serbia is trying to consolidate their territory by expelling Croat and Muslim populations.

Chechnya is another conflict area where a struggle has been launched for independence from Russia. In Sudan the largest country in Africa a guerrilla war is being fought against the government in Khartoum. In Myanmar (formerly Burma) tribal peoples on the Western, northern and eastern borders are fighting for independence from Myanmarese rule.

Our neighbor India is wracked by major nationalist guerrilla wars of secession of which Kashmir is significant. In Kashmir the guerrillas do not hold significant extents of territory in defiance of the state but live amidst civilian population and mount sporadic attacks against installations and personnel. The present day escalation of this conflict may even lead to a war between India and Pakistan.

Israel-Palestine is another area where Palestinians are waging a struggle for a state of their own. Determined efforts of the battle hardened Israel army and its elite intelligence agencies have failed to stop the wave of suicide bombings taking place inside Israel. The Israel experience demonstrates that a nationalist guerrilla war for the establishment of a new, independent Palestine state is not something that can be crushed by superior force. It provides Sri Lanka, perhaps the lesson that is too important to be ignored.

In Sri Lanka war has resulted in economic and financial ruin. LTTE fighting on their home ground have often replenished their armories from the forces that oppose them. There are numerous incidents of the army losing large stocks of armaments including artillery guns. The LTTE is militarily far stronger today, after two decades of fighting and losses in trained personnel, than it was at the beginning.

Sri Lanka could no longer find the funds to develop the enormously expensive weapons systems to fight this war. But still such development will be ineffective against a guerrilla adversary fighting on his home ground as seen from the experiences of our forces.

It is clear that modern warfare is entirely beyond our reach due to the cost factor. The nationalist groups who believe that a military solution should be pursued against the LTTE and that no negotiations should take place with them, seem to be unaware of the international experience in exactly similar cases. Two decades of fighting has not taken us anywhere close to the defeat of the LTTE.

Previously negotiations and even agreements to provide arrangements which would give reassurances to the Tamil community has not borne fruit mainly due to bad faith on one side or the other. Use of force has also failed so far to establish a climate for working out a viable political arrangement.