The British Minister was no doubt at his diplomatic best for it is very unlikely that he is unaware of the "ground situation" in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, and in view of similar comments made recently by some other representatives of foreign governments, the Action Group of Tamils in Colombo (AGOTIC) is compelled to place the following points on record.

President Kumaratunga announced her "Devolution Proposal" on the evening of the 3rd of August 1995. The stated intention then allegedly was to present the Proposal to the public and generate public awareness about its contents. The Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Prof. G L Peiris, explained that the Proposal will go through the following five stages (The Island, 6 Aug 95):

1. The President will strive to reach a consensus within her People Alliance Government.

2. Then the Proposal will be finalised as a draft chapter of a new constitution and be submitted to the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) on Constitutional Reform.

3. The PSC, which is a forum for all parties in Parliament, must reach a consensus on the draft chapter.

4. Thereafter the draft chapter will be presented to Parliament to obtain a two-thirds majority vote.

5. After obtaining a two-third majority, the proposal will be placed before the people at a referendum.

The draft chapter was officially made public as the Draft Provisions of the Constitution on the 16th of January 1996 and later submitted to the PSC.

The success of this five-stage process depends on the following crucial factors.

Firstly, the President must be able to marshal the support of other members of the PA to reach a consensus. But the DUNLF is implacably opposed to the Draft Provisions; and there are reliable indications that influential sections within the President’s own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) also oppose the Draft Provisions. On the 24th of January the member-parties of the PA announced that they would be meeting on the 12th of February to deliberate on the Draft Provisions (Virakesari, 24 Jan 96); but nothing has been heard from them to date about the proposed meeting. Clearly the President has failed to cobble together a consensus within the PA Government, which has NOT collectively accepted responsibility for the Draft Provisions. Therefore AGOTIC is of the view that the present Draft Provisions are NOT the proposals of the PA Government.

Secondly, the PSC has to function effectively. But it has yet to conduct orderly business due to absenteeism and an occasional lack of a quorum, partly because some PA members have neglected to attend the deliberations.

Thirdly, the President surely knows that she must solicit the support of the United National Party (UNP) in the Parliamentary Opposition in order to obtain a two-third majority vote in Parliament. But the President has consistently antagonized the UNP. She has repeatedly chastised them for their past political actions; and her Governors even dissolved two UNP-controlled Provincial Councils in the North-Central and Sabaragama Provinces. The Courts have since held that their actions are illegal and the dissolution orders have been quashed (The Island, 28 Mar 96). Therefore the AGOTIC is of the view that the President has deliberately foreclosed every avenue of potential support from the UNP. It is impossible for her now to claim with any credibility that she is attempting to secure a two-third majority vote in Parliament.

Fourthly, the President has been forced to declare Emergency Rule island wide and to postpone Local Government Elections (The Island 19 Apr 96). It follows that the popularity of the PA Government and the SLFP in particular among the Sinhalese people is sinking fast. Given the fact that she has already antagonized the UNP, the President cannot even pretend that she could win approval at a nationwide referendum for her Draft Provisions.

Therefore AGOTIC is of the view that President Kumaratunga has consciously and effectively terminated the "peace process". This reveals that she propagated a Goebellsian "Big Lie," of seeking a negotiated political solution; that she always had and still has ONLY the military option and nothing else to resolve the ethnic conflict.

At this point we must reflect on the arguments advanced by the so called "peaceniks", who are members of the conflict resolution and peace lobbies in Colombo. When the President unleashed the armed forces to capture Jaffna, the "peaceniks" supported her actions. Indeed, immediately after the "fall" of Jaffna on the 5th of December 1995, a prominent Sinhalese "peacenik", Dr. Jehan Perera, in fact took pride in the NGOs’ contribution and insisted that "the human rights NGOs have to be given their share of ‘credit’ for the governmental victory in Jaffna" (The Island 10 Dec 95).

The "peacenicks" explained their support for the military campaign on the following grounds: when the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is weakened or defeated and the armed forces established direct control over the Jaffna Peninsula, the President’s hand will be strengthened against the Sinhalese opposition in the South. This, they said, will embolden her to sell her devolution proposals to the Sinhalese "people" and will therefore make peace all the more possible.

In other words, the "peacenicks" made the following assertions:

Firstly, they claimed in effect that it is necessary to maim and kill thousands of Tamil men, women and children in the North (and later in the East) and bomb and shell Tamil homes and schools in order to placate Sinhalese public opinion. AGOTIC refrains from comment here.

Secondly, the "peacenicks" believed that after the armed forces established direct control over the Tamil areas, the President would through sheer altruism relinquish that control by devolving power to a Tamil administration in the north and east. That is, they believed that the President will voluntarily give away at the negotiating table all or most of what she won on the battlefield. This is pure and simple self-serving political bilge. AGOTIC can only conclude that the "peacenicks" must possess grossly warped minds and an abysmally Neanderthal logic.

On the other hand, AGOTIC believes in giving credit where credit is due. President Kumaratunga has skillfully manipulated New Delhi, exploiting India’s well known strategic need for a stable southern border. Her evident intention was to offer the August 1995 Devolution Proposals and induce New Delhi to in return rein in Tamil Nadu so as to give her a free hand to pursue the assault on Jaffna. New Delhi naively assumed that the Devolution Proposal will, at the most with some modifications, be implemented after the "fall" of Jaffna so as to satisfy India’s security concerns.

New Delhi kept its side of the bargain. But President Kumaratunga published a vastly diluted version of the Proposals as the Draft Provisions, which even the Tamil politicians in Colombo are embarrassed to support. This means that New Delhi will again be terribly disappointed by the actions of Colombo. Then again, all is fair in love and war.

Dr. K. Velauthapillai President