by A.R.M. Imtiyaz, Ph.D. [1]
The straightforward answer is 'No.' Why? Scholars of ethnic political conflict from Gurr to Howard clearly maintain some basic understanding of the dynamics of these struggles to answer the question. Accordingly, no ethno-political military group or alliance would enjoy the loyalty and political support of members of the oppressed ethno-political groups unless the military group correctly identifies the political necessity of the struggle, a military strategy to win the struggle, and has a clear goal of self-independency against the oppressed state or domestic elite - in my words - the ruling class.
There are no convincing evidence to believe that Karauna's departure from the LTTE materialized due to his loyalty to the oppressed people. In fact, the domestic Sinhala-Buddhist and Indian elite or ruling class had long approached Karuna. However, Karuna did not find the 'proper time' to break ranks with the LTTE leadership, which fought determinately against the Sinhala-Buddhist state, till the no-war treaty signed by the former premier Ranil Wickramasinghe. This is to say, Karuna does not have any political validation, except criticizing the LTTE leadership, for his political existence. Karuna, however, believes that his Eastern regionalism will prop up him to challenge the LTTE leadership. Karuna would be proved wrong sooner or later if he dreams continuously in this way. One needs to understand that no politico-military groups in conflict have succeeded against a strong ethno-politico leadership without strapping political agendas, which really speak of oppressed people's grievances. The point is that Karauna has neither the political smarts to bring a counter Tamil struggle agenda against the LTTE leadership to win the Tamils' lost rights from an oppressive Sinhala-Buddhist state, nor is he militarily independent.
The major purpose of the Karuna-ENDLF alliance, or the TamilEela Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) - (TamilEela People's Liberation Tigers), is to challenge the LTTE. The lengthy statement (Daily News, October 26) from TMVP made this fact abundantly clear. The Karuna-led TMVP defines the LTTE as the oppressed Tamils' chief enemy. The statement maintains that "due to wrong leadership of the autocrat Prabhakaran our young nation has faced doom and destruction. Thousands of Tamil people have lost their lives."
The Tamils the Northeast and the rest of the world obviously know the fact that the Sinhala-Buddhist state since independence has continuously oppressed the minority Tamils in all areas, from language to employment, and destroyed the Tamil nation for political outbidding. Iin other words, the domestic elite triggered conflict for political power. As a result, over the last three decades, while the Sinhalese people and their homelands have prospered and flourished, the Tamil people and their homelands have suffered and become the backyard colony of the Sinhala-Buddhist state. More, there occurred five major anti-Tamil riots, in 1956, 1958, 1977, 1981, and 1983. In all these riots, in Satchi Ponnanmbalam's words, hundreds of Tamil people were killed, many Tamil women raped and countless numbers of Tamil homes looted and burnt[2] (Satchi Ponnambalam, Sri Lanka: National Conflict and the Tamil Liberation Struggle, London, Zed Books, 1983).
How can TMVP puts the entire blame on the LTTE, which has been resisting the Sinhala-Buddhist state's cruel political and military aggressopm since the late 1970s? The perturbing fact is that the TMVP still does not realize properly the major enemy of the oppressed Tamils. I can comfortably predict that the TMVP will finally get shelter in the dustbin of history if it continuously maintains this political blunder. The TMVP's formula is to defeat the LTTE first and later negotiate with the Sinhala state for Tamil rights. One should understand that, if there is no strong leadership representing the oppressed (Tamils), the Sinhala-Buddhist state will not consider offering even cultural autonomy for the Tamils. That is to say, the Sinhala-Buddhist state will not offer a single package of rights to the minorities if it defeats the LTTE. In my tested political hypothesis, 'the stronger the politico-military force that represents the Tamils, the greater the Tamils gained from the Sinhala-Buddhits oppressor.' In my political understanding, the TMVP would not help the oppressed Tamils to win their lost rights from the Sinhala state, therefore, it would not be a political error if the Northeast Tamils refuse to endorse the Sinhala- and Indian state-sponsored TMVP programs, at least till the TMVP proves Karuna's genuine eligibility to be a real leader of a Tamil party that asserts a logical political agenda to win Tamil rights and refuses the Indian and Sri Lankan payroll.
Will the TMVP make a difference? I argue that Karuna and his new allies will not make any difference as long as they get total shelter from the oppressive Sinhala state and financial and logistic assistance from the Indian ruling class. My conclusion, reasonably enough, is for LTTE leader Pirababkaran to maintain his tight hold on the Tamils.
Briefly, Karuna, who depends on the oppressive Sinhala-Buddhist state for his political and economic existence, would not be emerging as a formidable force in the Tamil conflict history unless he comes up with authentic political programs. If Karuna would like to lead the Tamil cause, he should well prove that he is NOT an agent of both the Sinhala-Buddhists and Indian ruling class whose network carefully launched this effort to weaken the oppressed Tamils' struggle, and he has practical but strong political programs to win Tamils' rights from the Sinhala state above all else. The serious question is that does Karuna or the TMVP have any real political ability and ideological guide to be an independent and strong leader without the assistance of the tyrannical Sinhala-Buddhist forces? No mature Tamils in the Northeast would reply positively. Then, I can safely say that the LTTE leadership would not be weakening even if New Delhi, Washington, and Colombo tightly supports this splinter group of the LTTE. Even the LTTE itself would crack if it fails to stay focused on the Tamil cause, the outcome of Sinhala ethno-centrism.
[1] Visiting Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania USA. Author can be contacted at imtiyaz@eppc.org
[2] It is important to remember that all these things happened despite the fact that the majority of the Sinhalese are Buddhists and despite the fundamental Buddhists concepts of Karuna (compassion) and Metta (universal love) rooted among the Sinhala-Buddhists.