by
Taraki
A
military
solution
to
Sri
Lanka's
ethnic
conflict
remains
a
very
real
option
today
although
we
are
almost
into
three
years
of
a
fairly
stable
no-war
atmosphere.
In
large
measure
this
is
due
to
persistent
beliefs
and
perceptions
in
the
Sinhala
polity
about
the
LTTE.
And
these
are
having
the
cumulative
effect
of
draining
the
south
of
whatever
frail
will
it
had
been
left
with
after
the
elections
of
April
2004
to
resume
negotiations
with
the
Tigers.
The
dominant
of
these
is
the
conviction
that
the
Liberation
Tigers
are
imploding
and
that
this
is
an
irreversible
process,
which
needs
only
time
to
bring
about
the
fragmentation
of
the
LTTE
into
politically
negligible
factions.
The
belief
is
shared
by
almost
everyone
in
the
Sinhala
polity
-
from
the
customer
friendly
trishaw
driver
in
Pettah
to
President
Chandrika
Kumaratunga.
In
the
South,
one
has
been
hearing
about
this
in
one
form
or
another
from
politicians,
journalists,
academics,
military
officers
business
persons
etc.,
since
Karuna
ran
away
from
the
LTTE.
Now
it
is
clear
that
the
President
herself
shares
the
conviction
that
the
LTTE
is
falling
apart.
In
her
latest
interview
to
the
Hindu,
the
President
says:
"For
the
first
time
(the
LTTE)
has
split
into
three.
Prabhaharan
has
lost
his
army
commander.
Now
he
is
having
serious
problems
with
his
navy
commander".
We
also
see
persistent
reports
in
the
mainstream
Sinhala
and
English
press
in
Colombo
that
give
further
credence
and
flesh
to
this
'LTTE
break
up'
theme.
Then
there
are
reports
that
Karuna's
men
are
giving
the
LTTE
a
real
hard
time
in
the
east;
that
the
appointment
of
Bhanu
as
Batticaloa
commander
has
annoyed
eastern
Tamils;
that
supporters,
relatives
and
followers
of
former
Batticaloa
commander
Ramesh
are
disgruntled
and
are
waiting
for
an
opportune
moment
to
vent
their
anger
on
the
Tigers.
At
this
juncture,
lest
it
be
misconstrued,
I
should
emphasise
that
it
is
not
my
intention
here
to
dispute
stories
about
the
LTTE's
implosion.
Their
truth
or
falsity
has
absolutely
no
relevance
to
my
argument.
The
point
is
that
this
belief,
stated
or
implied,
promotes
an
attitude
in
the
Sinhala
polity
which
inevitably
dampens
its
collective
will
to
restart
talks
(on
any
basis)
with
the
LTTE
in
a
hurry.
A
Sinhala
nationalist
acquaintance
put
in
a
nutshell
at
a
watering
hole
discussion
the
other
day.
"If
the
no
war,
no
talks
atmosphere
in
the
northeast
is
triggering
such
spectacular
cracks
in
the
LTTE
such
as
Karuna's
revolt,
why
should
any
smart
Sinhala
leader
throw
a
life
line
to
the
Tigers
by
restarting
talks
with
them
now?"
asked
he.
Internationally
facilitated
negotiations
with
the
Government
of
Sri
Lanka
could
take
the
wind
off
the
sails
of
Karuna
and
his
allies
by
enhancing
the
LTTE's
political
standing
among
the
Tamils
in
good
measure,
according
to
the
prevailing
attitude.
Logically
and
strategically
this
line
of
thinking
is
perfect
and
hence
very
convincing.
It
is
reasonable
to
assume
that
the
LTTE
can
remain
on
top
in
the
Tamil
polity
only
as
long
as
it
is
winning
a
war
or
is
delivering
a
tangibly
significant
peace
dividend
to
the
people
of
the
northeast.
Either
is
necessary
to
maintain
the
LTTE's
internal
cohesion.
It
is
also
reasonable
to
assume
that
sans
a
clear
purpose,
either
of
fighting
the
Sri
Lankan
state
or
of
delivering
the
peace
dividend,
the
rank
and
file
of
the
LTTE
will
start
losing
motivation
or
become
disgruntled
with
the
leadership.
Therefore,
it
logically
follows
that
if
the
LTTE
is
prevented
from
going
back
to
war
for
a
sufficiently
long
period
during
which
it
is
unable
to
negotiate
a
mechanism
for
giving
Tamils
their
long-awaited
peace
dividend
then
it
would
start
fragmenting
inexorably.
And
some
articulate
Sinhala
nationalists
argue
that
promoting
a
broad
front
of
all
the
anti
LTTE
groups
and
strengthening
their
hand
at
this
time
could
help
shrink
the
political
space
which
the
Tigers
occupy
today.
This
frame
of
mind
in
the
south
is
not
only
based
on
the
belief
that
the
LTTE
is
breaking
up
but
also
on
long
standing
assumptions
such
as
that
the
Tamil
people
do
not
like
to
live
under
the
LTTE's
jackboot;
Tamils
support
the
Tigers
out
of
fear
and
because
they
have
no
other
option;
journalists
from
the
northeast
write
in
favour
of
the
Tamil
cause
because
they
are
scared
of
the
Tigers;
ordinary
Tamils
would
resist
the
LTTE
if
they
have
the
democratic
space
to
voice
their
protest.
For
more
than
13
years
the
University
Teachers
For
Human
Rights
(J)
have
produced
voluminous
material
which
further
convinced
the
Sinhala
polity
that
the
Tamils
inveterately
despise
the
LTTE.
|
From
this
it
follows
that
if
the
Tamils
in
the
northeast
were
adequately |
empowered
they
would
openly
shun
the
Tigers.
In
this
context
one
now
hears
the
theory
that
prolonging
the
no
war,
no
talks
stalemate
is
salutary
in
that
it
is
empowering
ordinary
Tamil
people
and
hence
helping
them
resist
the
Tigers.
Dr.
Sumansiri
Liyanage
illustrated
this
argument
in
a
recent
article
with
the
example
of
Tamil
parents
in
Akkaraipattu
who
opposed
the
LTTE
when
it
had
demanded
back
their
children
who
had
deserted
its
ranks
during
Karuna's
revolt.
So
there
are
ample
grounds
for
the
Sinhala
polity
to
believe
that
the
international
and
local
conditions
for
the
continuing
implosion
of
the
LTTE
are
perfect
today.
If,
according
to
this
belief,
ordinary
Tamils
are
not
happy
with
the
LTTE
and
if
there
are
major
splits
in
the
organisation
then
why
should
the
Sinhala
polity
give
it
legitimacy
by
resuming
talks
or,
for
that
matter,
grant
a
mechanism
for
delivering
the
peace
dividend
in
the
northeast?
Also,
it
is
believed
the
LTTE
is
not
in
a
position
to
put
all
this
right
by
going
back
to
war
because
the
US,
EU
and
India
won't
allow
it.
The
cumulative
effect
of
all
these
beliefs
and
perceptions
in
the
South,
regardless
of
their
truth
or
falsity,
will
further
negate
the
conditions
within
the
Sinhala
polity
for
resuming
talks
with
the
Tigers.
And
at
this
juncture
Pirapaharan,
in
the
message
he
sent
through
the
Norwegians
last
Thursday,
has
asked
President
Kumaratunga
to
publicly
state
the
consensus
in
her
government
to
restart
the
talks
-
a
consensus
on
what
the
UPFA
government
can
offer
the
Tamils.
But
the
beliefs
and
perceptions
about
the
LTTE
that
have
gained
wide
currency
in
the
South
from
the
President
downwards
will
totally
impede
a
Sinhala
consensus
on
settling
the
Tamil
question.
How
long
can
the
President
prevaricate
on
the
Sinhala
consensus
that
Pirapaharan
has
asked
for?
The
Tamil
reaction
to
this
was
anticipated
by
Senathirajah
Jeyanandamoorthy,
TNA
MP
for
Batticaloa
who
was
a
close
friend
of
Karuna,
on
Monday.
"Sinhala
parties
will
never
come
to
a
consensus
on
a
political
settlement
to
the
ethnic
conflict.
It
won't
happen
if
we
Tamils
wait
for
another
fifty
years
in
deference
to
the
wishes
of
the
international
community.
The
so-called
Sinhala
consensus
is
a
perfidious
mirage.
It
is
now
time
for
the
Tamils
to
call
the
bluff
and
prepare
to
forge
ahead
on
their
own".
Daily
Mirror