All Lankan Eggs in Indian Basket?

The Island, November 10, 2004

The joint Indo- Sri Lanka statement issued after the visit of President Chandrika Kumaratunga to New Delhi and the proposed Defence Co-operation Agreement together with complementary agreements such as on Pallaly Airport are being hailed in all quarters here, except by the LTTE. There is much satisfaction because such Indo-Lanka co-operation, it is considered, would be a positive deterrent to LTTE terrorism breaking out again and would help resolve the 20 year- old North-East conflict.

The basic assertions of the Indo-Lanka joint statement reveals that there are no fundamental changes in India’s Sri Lanka policy and it is a reiteration of the former Indian position, even when relations were at their worst. India being committed to the unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity, their support for a negotiated settlement and opposition to terrorism in all its manifestations, have been stated in documents exchanged between the two countries much earlier and even quite recently. What is new is the warmth, friendship, and commitment of both countries to these stated objectives which are being bolstered by the economic and trade ties such as the Free Trade Agreement and more such agreements on economic co-operation in the offing.The Indo- Sri Lanka Defence Co- operation is being welcomed even by those who opposed the hegemonic features in the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of 1987 because of the militaristic threat of the LTTE in the North-particuarly in the Jaffna peninsula. The Sri Lanka government is trapped in its own peace process from opposing the LTTE’s military build up. The LTTE, all concerned are aware, has been building up its military cadres and re-arming by smuggling of arms during the entire period of this cease- fire. A recent report by the prestigious London based International Institute of Strategic Studies has said that the LTTE has even acquired a light aircraft. On the other hand the ‘international community’ involved in our ‘peace process’ does nothing to halt this military build up and will howl if Sri Lanka commences rapid arming of its forces. America helps in training the armed services and perhaps may even provide some military intelligence but the European nations involved are doing nothing to prevent contributions flowing in from their countries into the LTTE war chest.Thus, India whose security is being threatened on the Southern flank by this terrorist organisation is the only foreign power that will be committed to take on the LTTE militarily as it did in the late 1980s. As the former Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes has said: the security concerns of Sri Lanka are the security concerns of India as well.

But all this places Sri Lanka firmly in the Indian sphere of influence circumscribing its defence strategies and limiting its foreign policy options. It will no longer be have the freedom of action as it did as an independent, non aligned nation when it permitted Pakistani troops to pass through Sri Lankan ports from the west wing of Pakistan to the east wing during the Bangladesh war. According to reports there appear to be some hiccups about the agreement on the Pallaly Airport because the Indian government wants to limit its use to Sri Lankan and Indian Forces only. While such limitations will not be desirable in normal times, does Sri Lanka now have another option than to grant India’s request?Former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi made no bones about hiding Indian hegemonic desires in South Asia and used the Sri Lanka Tamil insurgency to make Colombo toe the New Delhi line. While Indians did realise its folly of using terrorism as an instrument of foreign policy and fought LTTE terrorism later on, today’s situation is that Sri Lanka has to depend on India to save its territorial integrity.Perhaps, as some Indian political strategists maintain, no country is fully sovereign and certainly small countries such as Sri Lanka can enjoy only limited sovereignty.

But can Sri Lanka place all its eggs in the Indian basket? New Delhi’s Sri Lanka policy is also conditioned by the so-called Southern option—- central coalition governments depending heavily on support of South Indian parties, particuarly from Tamil Nadu. What would happen if a pro- LTTE Tamil Nadu party begins to rock an Indian coalition government?What is required now is astute political leadership although the present incumbents are light years away from it. The only option available appears to be the Superpower or Hyperpower as it is now called. India too has its limitations when it comes to relations with the United States. Could our leaders be smart enough to use Lanka-US relations to influence India to our advantage? This will indeed be a long shot considering what President Ronald Reagan’s trouble- shooter General Walters told Colombo newsmen in 1987: ‘You settle your problems with India, we will not interfere.’

Right now, there appears to be no option but to place all Lankan eggs in the Indian basket.