Lanka Most Militarized in South Asia: Study

by PK Balachandran, Colombo, Hindustan Times, September 21, 2006

The twenty-five year long military conflict between the Tamil insurgents and successive Sri Lankan governments has made Sri Lanka the most militarised country in South Asia.
 
In this respect, Sri Lanka has dwarfed the much larger India and military-ruled Pakistan, says a study conducted by the Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group (SFG).
 
Published in January 2006, the SFG monograph says that Sri Lanka will continue to hold this "dubious" position between now and 2010, given the absence of any clear signs that the military conflict is going to taper off, say the researchers, Semu Bhatt and Devika Mistry.
 
Successive governments and the LTTE are both to be blamed for this sorry state of affairs, as both sides have continually raised the scale and technological sophistication of the war.
 
A major contributory factor in the high militarisation of Sri Lanka has been the nature of the LTTE.
 
In military terms, the LTTE is unmatched in the South Asian region. No other insurgent group here has, or has ever had, the equipment and military capabilities that the LTTE has.
 
No other country has faced the kind of challenges that the LTTE has posed to the Sri Lankan government.
 
Presenting comparative data for 2004, the SFG's report says that Sri Lanka was the most militarised among the South Asian countries with 8,000 military personnel per one million population.

The figures for other South Asian countries were: Pakistan, 4,000; Nepal 2,700; India, 1,300; and Bangladesh 1,000.
 
In terms of military expenditure as percentage of GDP also, Sri Lanka spent the most. 
 
The figure was 4.1% in the case of Sri Lanka; 3.5% in the case of Pakistan; 2.5% in the case of India and Nepal; and 1.5% in the case of Bangladesh.
 
According to the SFG, Sri Lanka's defence expenditure is also higher than other comparable conflict-ridden countries such as Colombia, Myanmar, Sierra Leone, Sudan, the Philippines and Uganda.
 
According to Indian army personnel, the Sri Lankan army is well equipped against the LTTE, which is its only target. The 150, 000 man army uses Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers, long range artillery, mortars, battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers. 
 
The Navy is much smaller with 20,000 personnel. It uses Fast Attack Craft with 23 mm guns, Inshore and Offshore patrol vessels, landing craft etc. The Air Force uses Kfir supersonic fighter-bombers, MIG-23, and choppers, including MI-24s. 
 
The defence expenditure, which is now about $700 million per annum, could go to about $1 billion, if current plans to increase the size of the armed forces and to give them better equipment and more ammunition are implemented. Aerial bombs and artillery shells cost a lot. 
 
"Sampur was captured by 2,000 soldiers, but to hold it, the army needs 20,000," a retired Air Marshal told Hindustan Times.

LTTE too spends a lot
 
"The military arsenal of the LTTE is highly sophisticated," the SFG says.
 
And being a military outfit essentially, expenditure on weapons and the maintenance of a war economy gets topmost priority in the LTTE.
 
It does precious little for the economic well being of the people under its control, despite running a few social and economic organisations.
 
The LTTE has no functioning Air Force and no anti-aircraft defences (at least now), but it is said have acquired two to five small aircraft, and built one or two airfields. 
 
But its ground forces and navy are very well equipped for an insurgent group. 
 
The ground forces have long-range artillery pieces, captured from the Sri Lankan forces, and a variety of mortars. But there are no tanks or armoured personnel carriers. 
 
The LTTE's Sea Tiger navy has home-made but fast moving craft fitted with double barrel 23 mm guns and radar. The boats have speeds from 10 to 45 knots. The outfit has several ocean going vessels, which indulge in commercial activity besides gun running.
 
But the LTTE is outnumbered. In comparison with the Sri Lankan's army's strength of 150, 000 men, the LTTE has only 10, 000. The LTTE's navy has about 2,000 in contrast with the Sri Lankan Navy's 20,600.

The LTTE's annual expenditure on its cadres and military-oriented networks, both in the island and abroad, is estimated to be in the range of $8 million annually.
 
But given the fact that the outfit's annual income is anywhere between $175 million and $385 million, the expenditure on cadres and the informer networks is "insignificant," the SFG says.
 
"The LTTE spends a minimum on its cadres and the maximum on sustaining a war economy and its support base internationally."
 
It is believed that of the total income, $100 million to 250 million comes from drug trafficking, though there is yet no direct evidence of the LTTE's involvement in this trade.
 
Local taxation and extortion is said to contribute about $30 million; human smuggling and funds siphoned off from NGOs gives $3 to 5 million; contributions from the Tamil expatriate community fetches $40 to 50 million; and profits from businesses from $35 to 50 million.
 
The recent fighting showed that the LTTE has no answer to Sri Lanka's air power. It had been trying to buy SA-18 shoulder held missiles but unsuccessfully. 
 
Like the Sri Lankan army, the LTTE has been spending its artillery shells liberally. Replenishment needs are urgent.
 
The LTTE's Sea Tigers had conducted impressive operations, but they have not been able to stop Sri Lankan shipping of late. The LTTE would therefore be shopping for naval equipment.
 
Last week, a ship, allegedly with a heavy load of artillery shells and missiles, was sunk by the Sri Lankan navy and air force off the South Eastern coast of the island.
 
With both the government and the LTTE hell bent on increasing their military capability, the former to keep what it had captured, and the latter to recapture what it had lost, a lessening of military expenditure is not on the cards. On the contrary, hefty increases are.

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