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Ilankai Tamil Sangam

Association of Tamils of Sri Lanka in the USA

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Critical Mass

by V Gunaratnam

The powerful new alliance, if it wanted to chart a new course, has to first find a way to retreat from Rajapakse’s extreme position, the one he constructed with the JVP and JHU, and implemented ruthlessly, with an iron hand against the Tamils.

Rajapakse’s publicly adopted position, on his way to becoming president, effectively ruled out a Tamil homeland, and any compromise of the unitary constitution, which stands like a big rock in the path of the alliance that has to be moved out. His position was a negation of the historical evolution of the Tamil question and in that context his promise of ‘maximum devolution of power’ holds exactly nothing for the Tamils.

The seething debate amongst expatriate Tamils worldwide has gathered momentum, faced with the uncertainty about what direction Sri Lanka’s new political alliance is going to take in the October peace talks in Geneva, and the deep sadness, anger and concern about innocent Tamils being killed with impunity every day by the armed forces of Sri Lanka and the paramilitaries working with them.

Devaluation of life

Tamils are anxious that nothing constructive may come out of Geneva to put a stop to the mindless killings going on without end, the rationalization of violence as an instrument of state policy, and the devaluation of human life, despite the hopes being raised by the newly minted SLFP-UNP unity pact.

There is apprehension that the pact is a deceptive political development that could only strengthens Rajapakse’s hand and lead to a more hard-line stance in negotiations to prolong the conflict and suffering of the Tamils.

Struggle for equality

It is well to remember that every Sinhala government of its day refused to countenance the thought of Tamils co-existing as equals with them, in the political sense. They played with Tamil lives, indulging in such irrational flights of insanity as Kumaratunga’s ‘war for peace’ and Rajapakse’s current ‘offensive operations’ to justify SLA incursions into LTTE territory under the guise of taking pre-emptive defensive measures.

Sinhala leaders have never had the courage to get their heads out of the sand, face reality and negotiate. Their idea of equality and democracy has been to grudgingly allow the Tamils a form of local government of the garden variety, a stunted, toothless and meaningless administrative mechanism that failed miserably to satisfy the Tamils and spawned nothing but more discontent and agitation.

Sri Lanka’s answer has been to unleash a cruel war of attrition, that continues in some form or other to this day, to subdue the Tamils suppress their aspirations, distort their history, culture, religion, and have their struggle belittled and their people subjected to untold suffering and privation. But the war has only stiffened their resistance and their will to fight back, convinced the Sinhalese have no wish to come to terms with them.

Not surprisingly, racial politics has become the potent springboard to power for Sinhala politicians, paying them rich dividends in political terms that has made them loath to give it up. And with no reason or incentive for them to deal with the Tamils in any substantive manner, the ethnic problem has continued to fester with results all too plain for Sri Lankans to see.

Blinkered racial politics

Racial politics continue to rule the lives of Sinhalese leaders, as it has for decades, blinding them from understanding the democratic imperatives of the times relating to minority rights. Predictably this neglect is also why the country has been heading to become another failed state after decades of preoccupation with a conflict that is eating up its resources, and edging it dangerously close to more war and a breakup.   

It is the same today as Sri Lanka goes to the Geneva talks under international pressure. But their approach has always been negative: keep the Tamils at bay with violence, and do nothing constructive to settle with them, while arming to overpower the LTTE militarily.

Sinhalese leaders shredded the constitution bestowed by the British with safeguards for the minorities, and created their own (1972 & 1978), erasing minority safeguards, glorifying and elevating their own language, religion and culture to the skies, and dealing with the Tamils only as an afterthought with constitutional appendages that served to institutionalize their degrading and putting them down. Over the years there were negotiations and agreements with the Sinhala leadership, but sadly nothing progressed beyond the ink on paper.

Recent poll results indicate that an overwhelming majority of Sinhalese favour peace, but this is illusory because it probably means peace on their terms, because there has been no political movement as a result.

Retreat from extremism    

The powerful new alliance, if it wanted to chart a new course, has to first find a way to retreat from Rajapakse’s extreme position, the one he constructed with the JVP and JHU, and implemented ruthlessly, with an iron hand against the Tamils.

Rajapakse’s publicly adopted position, on his way to becoming president, effectively ruled out a Tamil homeland, and any compromise of the unitary constitution, which stands like a big rock in the path of the alliance that has to be moved out. His position was a negation of the historical evolution of the Tamil question and in that context his promise of ‘maximum devolution of power’ holds exactly nothing for the Tamils.

Spanner in the works: De-merger    

To compound the difficulties, the Supreme Court has now thrown a spanner in the works by declaring the merger of the north and east under the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of 1987 as having “no force in law.” However, the Co-chairs and India, by declaring the issue should be decided by referendum, have forestalled any adverse impact it could have on the peace talks.

That is as it should be, because the merger is a political question, not one to be decided by the courts, and the Supreme Court has in fact obligingly stated the obvious by declaring that the remedy is in the hands of the legislature.

Mixed signals from key players   

There is no doubt the Co-chairs and India are going to be pulling the strings from behind the scenes and twisting arms to get the talks moving forward. After many years, it was encouraging to note they both have a consistent position in favour of the peaceful resolution of the conflict within a federal framework, and affirming the status of the North-East merger, though some recent actions seemed to be out of line.

The Americans obviously were not trying to earn brownie points with their planned naval exercises with the Sri Lankan navy, now put off. And on the Indian side, the refusal by the Indian prime minister to meet with the TNA MPs, and India’s decision to keep out of a proposed UN resolution on human rights violations by Sri Lanka were not what they appeared to be. Both actions were quite obviously designed to ensure US and India preserved their ‘neutrality’ in the vitally more important peace process, and that their counsel would carry weight with the Sinhalese.

Hard-line stance in negotiations      

There is no point in speculating on what are bound to come up for negotiations at the talks, which could range anything from the CFA to a Sri Lankan proposal on devolution. The first order of business should be to focus attention on the plight of people in dire need of humanitarian relief.

How Sri Lanka reacts to calls to provide emergency relief to affected Tamils, and to rein in their forces to put a stop to the killing of Tamil civilians would be the acid test to prove their bona fides entering the talks. If they don’t have the heart to urgently respond to human suffering, and it has to be wrung out of them, it would be foolish to imagine anything constructive coming out of the talks in a hurry, if at all.

Expect to see Sri Lanka presenting the now discredited idea of devolution within a unitary state, dressed up in new atire. Expect other watered-down versions of power devolution being brought up, everything but the real thing. Expect also to see a whole host of peripheral matters to cloud and obfuscate the core issues.

For the fifty-eight years since independence Sinhala leaders have sat twiddling their thumbs and doing nothing, but now it’s beyond belief that suddenly they have decided it is time to cross the Palk Strait to look for power-devolution solutions, like the Indian panchayat system of grassroots self-government within a province (gram panchayats like our village councils - at the lowest level, panchayat samities above them) which have nothing to do with autonomy for the Tamil homeland.

The character of the two parties in the UNP-SLFP alliance and their long history of intransigence and propensity for violence are well known and good indicators of what to expect from the Geneva talks: a more hard-line stance in negotiations in keeping with the immense political muscle Rajapakse now wields. But they should be wary about overreaching because two can play at the game.

The alliance would seek to consolidate their strength further and press ahead, testing the ground against the Tamils as they go forward. They are going to be scrambling all over the devolution terrain before they settle down, if they do. Tamils must know by now that nothing is going to be handed over on a platter.

Role of Co-chairs and India

Needless to say, without the Co-chairs and India acting more resolutely than hitherto, the talks could very well flounder badly and come to a premature end, because Sri Lanka’s new alliance is in a strong position to resist international pressures. Unless the Co-chairs take a very hard stand, it would be war to the bitter end.

Obviously, economic and other incentives, guarantees, and such other measures as would help to drive the talks forward, and eventually to cement an accord if and when it materializes are needed, but only so far.

Let the Tamils not forget that if Rajapakse was a menace with a JVP he was having difficulty controlling, think what could happen now with a much more powerful and cooperative UNP ally? That’s the sort of implacable force arraigned against the Tamils, and what the Co-chairs and India have to work against to achieve a breakthrough. But it is quite obvious that it is Sri Lanka that has to move to secure its future.

Critical mass?

Failure this time around would be catastrophic. Understandably, after waiting more than half-a-century for the goodwill that has never been shown, the Tamils are not optimistic about the outcome. Though the country is on the verge of chaos, and edging towards open war, there is considerable misgiving whether its leaders have the courage to make the critical difference to achieve a breakthrough and set the nation on the road to the long awaited accord everyone is hoping and indeed praying for.

Have we reached critical mass to break out of the past and reach for the sun?

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