SLCPJ: A New Era?

The 2024 Sri Lankan presidential election marked a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape and in geopolitics, with Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) / National People’s Power (NPP) alliance emerging victorious. Dissanayake’s victory—driven by a platform rooted in economic reform, anti-elite sentiment, and calls for justice—has inspired new hope among some.

Historically, Sri Lankan governments have established multiple commissions to investigate human rights abuses, including enforced disappearances. However, these commissions have been largely ineffective, lacking transparency with many reports unpublished, recommendations ignored and no significant accountability achieved. As we mark 27 October, Sri Lanka’s National Day of Commemoration of Disappearances, the new political shift raises pressing questions for the families of the disappeared, who have endured decades of unanswered questions and unfulfilled promises. Will this new era do more than offer symbolic gestures and finally deliver long-awaited truth and justice?

The Stakes of the Election for Families of the Disappeared

Dissanayake’s rise to power was largely fuelled by public frustration with the entrenched political elite, economic collapse, and widespread calls for change. Dissanayake rose to prominence through his alignment with the 2022 Aragalaya protest movement, which called for sweeping reforms following the country’s economic collapse (Daily FT).

Yet, beneath the economic concerns lies a deep and painful issue that continues to haunt Sri Lanka: enforced disappearances. Between 60,000 and 100,000 people have disappeared during the country’s long history of violence, including the late 1980s JVP uprising and the civil war between the government and the LTTE. According to the United Nations, this rate marks the nation as second in the world for enforced disappearances, after Iraq.

For the families of these victims, Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim alike, the 2024 elections offered a chance to vote for a new president to address their decades-long fight for truth and accountability. Dissanayake’s administration has the opportunity to break with the past, ushering in reforms that could pave the way for justice. However, whether this opportunity is seized or squandered remains uncertain, given the complexities of Sri Lanka’s political history and the JVP’s controversial past.

Dissanayake: A Complicated History

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Dissanayake’s ability to deliver justice stems from the JVP’s role in Sri Lanka’s history. The JVP was a key player in the violent uprisings of the early 1970s and late 1980s, and its staunch Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism alienated many communities, particularly Tamils in the North and East. For the families of the disappeared, this history casts doubt on whether the party is genuinely committed to the kind of transparency and accountability they seek.

However, under Dissanayake’s leadership, the JVP has sought to distance itself from this violent past by rebranding itself as a party focused on democratic reforms, decentralisation, and inclusivity. The promises of abolishing the executive presidency and advocating for regional autonomy could empower Tamil-majority areas in their pursuit of truth and justice for the disappeared. It’s important to note that the JVP supporters themselves were also victims of violence and enforced disappearances during the 1970s. Between 1989 and 1990, an estimated 30,000 to 60,000 Sinhalese youth suspected of ties to the JVP were killed or forcibly disappeared by government-operated death squads. If the new JVP leadership acknowledges and actively confronts the suffering experienced by their own supporters, could they foster a more inclusive stance towards all victims of enforced disappearances, regardless of their political affiliations or ethnicity?

Harini Amarasuriya: A New Voice for Justice?

A potential beacon of hope for the families of the disappeared lies in the appointment of Harini Amarasuriya as Prime Minister under Dissanayake’s presidency. A respected academic and activist, Amarasuriya has consistently championed the rights of marginalised communities, including the Tamil population. Her leadership could bring a fresh perspective to the government’s approach to ethnic reconciliation, particularly in addressing the grievances of families whose loved ones disappeared.

Amarasuriya’s strong stance on democratic reforms and human rights could push the government to take concrete steps toward addressing past abuses. Her influence may also be key in advancing policies related to land disputes and political autonomy in Tamil-majority areas, which have long been points of contention. If Amarasuriya’s voice is given weight within the administration, it could lead to more substantive efforts to investigate disappearances and hold those responsible accountable.

The Challenge of Impunity

Despite these signs of potential progress, a major obstacle remains: the security forces’ continued impunity. Past governments have been reluctant to challenge security forces on human rights abuses. Multiple administrations have established commissions of inquiry into war crimes and enforced disappearances, as shown in the flowchart below, but each have resulted in reports being ignored and recommendations for further investigations and prosecutions rarely implemented. For example, the 2013 Paranagama Commission under the administration of Mahinda Rajapaksa received over 24,000 complaints of enforced disappearances to investigate but was marred by allegations of witness intimidation and tampering of evidence, leaving families with no answers. The Office on Missing Persons (OMP) has also done little to help victims’ relatives. For many families, the OMP’s work has been more symbolic than impactful, failing to provide the answers or justice they seek.

One high-profile case is that of journalist Prageeth Ekneligoda, who disappeared on 24 January, 2010. Over the years, the Sri Lanka Campaign has championed Sandiya Ekneligoda, who has been campaigning to find out the truth about what happened to her husband, after local residents reported seeing a white van without number plates around the time of Prageeth’s disappearance. Sandiya has attended court over 200 times and little progress has been made. The reluctance of previous governments to confront powerful actors involved in enforced disappearances, many of whom have been in positions of authority themselves, has resulted in widespread distrust of institutions like the OMP.

The struggle for justice is further complicated by the harassment faced by families of the disappeared. Many, like Sandiya, endure not only the pain of loss but also intimidation from authorities. The Sri Lanka Campaign met Manel Udayachandra this year, a Tamil mother whose son was forcibly disappeared in 2008. As reported recently by the Tamil Guardian, Sri Lankan police have targeted Manel, attempting to silence her activism and dissuade her from seeking answers about her son’s fate. This alarming pattern of harassment underscores the culture of impunity that continues to thrive in Sri Lanka, leaving families in a state of fear and uncertainty as they demand justice for their loved ones.

International Pressure and Accountability

The international community, including bodies like the OHCHR’s Sri Lanka Accountability Project, has been calling for independent investigations into enforced disappearances. The extent to which Dissanayake’s administration co-operates with international justice mechanisms will be a crucial test of its commitment to addressing this issue.

The extent to which the new government makes commitments, however, could be complicated by the geopolitical context surrounding the new political direction. Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean has made the elections a focal point for global powers, particularly China, India, Russia, and the United States of America (USA).

China has become a significant player in Sri Lanka’s economy through its Belt and Road Initiative, investing heavily in infrastructure like the Hambantota Port (Daily FT).  Dissanayake’s victory, however, may signal a shift in relations given his emphasis on reducing dependence on foreign loans, particularly from China ​(Daily FT) ​(The Asian Review).

India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour, is also closely watching developments, especially given its concerns about China’s growing influence within its sphere of influence. Relations between India and Sri Lanka have often been delicate, especially regarding Tamil rights. While Dissanayake’s JVP historically harboured anti-Indian sentiments, his recent public statements focus on balanced foreign relations. However, his criticism of certain Indian investments, such as those by the Adani Group, could complicate relations (Eurasia Review) ​(Daily FT).

Russia, seeking to strengthen ties with non-Western nations, may find a more favourable partner in Dissanayake’s socialist-leaning administration. The USA and its Western allies, on the other hand, are keen to limit China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region and were more aligned with centrist candidates like Sajith Premadasa. Dissanayake’s anti-neoliberal stance raises concerns in  Western capitals. The West will be wary of how Dissanayake balances relations with China, India, and Russia, while also navigating Sri Lanka’s economic challenges, including the possibility of renegotiating IMF-backed austerity measures. How the new administration balances these external pressures—seeking economic reforms and sovereign decision-making while maintaining crucial international partnerships—will be crucial in determining whether it can prioritise and deliver accountability.

Conclusion: A Moment of Opportunity?

The 2024 election has ushered in a moment of hope for many Sri Lankans, but for the families of the disappeared, the stakes are particularly high. Dissanayake’s presidency represents a potential turning point, one that could finally bring long-awaited justice. However, this hope is tempered by the pattern of failed commissions and policy shortcomings under previous governments, the JVP’s controversial past, and the military’s entrenched power.

Whether this new government delivers on its promises of reform, accountability, and justice for the disappeared will depend on its willingness to confront these challenges within the context of navigating geopolitical pressures. The families of the disappeared will be watching closely, as will the international community. The question remains: Will Sri Lanka finally take the steps needed to heal its past, or will this opportunity slip away once again and continue to leave families in the dark?