by C. Raja Mohan; The Hindu, December 18, 2003
Note from the person who kindly brought this article to our attention:
Singapore journalist/academic Cherian George (born and bred Singaporean keralite)wrote an article a few years back titled “Replacing British Empire [in India] with an East Asian Empire.” In my view it can happen with the help of the brahmin ruling class similar to the British using the maharajahs.
I do not know what kind of creative Indian policy The Hindu has in mind on SL issues and also on the status of Tamil Language (will they advocate for the same status as Sanskirit or Hindi) within India??? The Hindu does not realise Tamils with equal rights will make India and the subcontinent stronger.
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http://www.hindu.com/2003/12/18/stories/2003121800871000.htm
A creative Indian policy must aim at leveraging the rise of China and Japan and the Sino-U.S. entente to transform its own security condition in the subcontinent.
WOULD THE unfolding rise of China and India on the one hand and the political unshackling of Japan on the other pose a threat to peace and stability in Asia? It is not often that a region witnesses so many emerging powers at the same time. The rise of even one great power is usually seen as a threat to the existing order. When many of them become strong at the same time it would be logical to assume systemic instability. But it is not inevitable that Beijing, Tokyo and New Delhi must lock themselves into an unstable balance of power in Asia.
It is not difficult to conceive of cooperation among the major powers of Asia that will reinforce the growing weight of the continent in world affairs. The current emphasis of Beijing and New Delhi on internal economic development and the improved conditions for resolving their long-standing bilateral problems like the boundary dispute implies that there need be no antagonistic contradiction between them. If they stave off rivalry among themselves, China, Japan and India can ensure their own elevated profile in the new global order.
For sceptics, the suggestion of an area of peace in Asia remains wishful thinking. It is in fact rooted in the fact that the much feared cold war between the United States and China has now been postponed, probably indefinitely. It is built on the real potential to deepen the economic integration of Asia. It is founded in the recognition that all the major powers in the region face threats — not from the unrealised geopolitical ambitions of the other but from the religious extremism and terrorism flourishing from many failed and failing states in Asia. The importance of the changing nature of great power relations in Asia is not abstract. It offers India a rare opportunity to transform the international relations of the subcontinent.
The Bush administration had come to power challenging the notion of its predecessor, the Clinton administration, that Washington and Beijing were “strategic partners”. The Bush ideologues had argued that China is a potential “strategic competitor”. The strong American support to Taiwan, the U.S. emphasis on missile defence, and the apparent search for forces to balance China in Asia seemed to confirm the worst. But the story has moved in a different direction.
The American focus and military energies shifted to Afghanistan and Iraq after the traumatic events of September 11, 2001. America is likely to be pre-occupied with West Asia and the war on terror for an extended period of time. The Chinese leadership instead of confronting the new American assertiveness chose to offer cooperation to Washington on a full range of issues and create unprecedented diplomatic space for itself.
The new entente between Washington and Beijing was visible in the effusive welcome that the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, received in the U.S. last week. For those interested in the protocol, Mr. Wen became the first head of government (as opposed to a head of state) to receive a 19-gun salute at the Bush White House. Mr. Wen got a lot more. Standing next to him, President George W. Bush ticked off the President of Taiwan for trying to raise tensions with China. Reversing his past commitment to defend Taiwan with “whatever it takes”, Mr. Bush insisted that the U.S. opposed any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan straits. Mr. Bush was, of course, expressing American gratitude for China helping out with the crisis in North Korea.
China’s decision to bail out the U.S. by shedding its traditional reluctance to pressure its longstanding ally, North Korea, is only one element of the sophisticated foreign policy unveiled by the new leadership in Beijing. China is now confident enough to discharge its responsibilities as a great power interested in regional stability. Whether it is in the Korean peninsula or in South East Asia, or for that matter in the subcontinent, China has begun to signal political maturity and diplomatic finesse.
Even as China mounts a charm offensive, Japan is breaking free from the old political constraints on exercising its power in Asia. The historic decision in Tokyo last week to send troops to Iraq has little to do with the ability of the Japanese military to make a difference to the anarchic situation there. But it has everything to do with changing the philosophical assumptions of post-War Japan and its standing in the world.
It is part of the determination of the Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and his colleagues to make Japan a “normal” nation nearly 60 years after the end of the Second World War. Despite the huge unpopularity of the decision to send Japanese troops, for the first time, into a risky combat situation without the mandate of the United Nations, Mr. Koizumi has decided to stay the course on his Iraq policy.
The move, its critics in Japan argue, undermines Article 9 of the post-war Peace Constitution renouncing the use of force in its foreign policy. Whatever the packaging of the decision by the Koizumi Government, it is exactly about that: to remove the post-War restrictions on Japan’s role in Asia. The Japanese establishment now believes Tokyo has done enough to expiate its guilt about its past colonial excesses and its war against Asia. Tokyo is now keen on taking its rightful place in the management of peace and stability in Asia.
Under the umbrella of the military alliance with the U.S., Japan is now crafting out a larger and more independent position for itself in the region. The special summit last week in Japan with all the leaders of the Association of South East Asian Nations was a reflection of the commitment in Tokyo to assume leadership positions. While China has objected to the Japanese move, it is a protest tinged with the sense of inevitability about the rise of Japan. While the historical distrust of Japan in China is real, so is the expanding economic cooperation between them. China recently replaced the U.S. as the largest source of imports for Japan.
The increasing weight of Beijing and Tokyo, some in the U.S. fear, will come at the expense of Washington. While Chinese and Japanese economic profiles have risen in Asia, the strategic pre-eminence of the U.S. is unlikely to be tested soon. Meanwhile, the U.S. itself is reviewing its troop deployments in Asia. Given the improved political conditions in East Asia, the U.S. is debating various options in shifting the weight of its military presence westwards and closer to the Indian Ocean and West Asia.
Where does that leave New Delhi? The hugely successful Look East policy has increased India’s profile in Asia; but there is a long way to go. The full potential of its relations with the major powers and the region is yet to be realised. While New Delhi is talking of a trade of $30 billion with ASEAN in the next few years, China’s trade with the same region is likely to reach $120 billion soon. As the weakest of the great powers, India has no reason to choose options of aligning with one great power against another. India must instead focus on intensifying its current multi-directional engagement of all the major powers in the region and become an indispensable element of the Asian balance of power.
A creative Indian policy must aim at leveraging the rise of China and Japan and the Sino-U.S. entente to transform its own security condition in the subcontinent. India is now in a position to mobilise American, Chinese and Japanese power to engineer internal change in Pakistan and nudge it in the direction of political moderation and regional economic integration. China has already been credited along with the U.S. in pressing Islamabad to reverse its negative attitude towards the current initiative from New Delhi. Japan is eager to pitch in with financial support to a peace process in the subcontinent.
As he heads to Pakistan early next month, the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, knows that India’s standing in Asia is rising and its relations with all the major powers are on the mend. The external conditions have never been better to promote a peace process in the subcontinent. In the past, great power rivalries complicated Indo-Pakistan relations. The emerging cooperative order in Asia today offers unprecedented diplomatic space for India in the subcontinent. All that Mr. Vajpayee needs to do is to come up with a set of bold ideas on peace and reconciliation with Pakistan.
The Hindu, Madras, December 18, 2003
originally published December 28, 2003