by T. Sabaratnam; originally published February 10, 2004
Weekly Review
An Opportunity Tamils Should Not Miss
Tamil politicians and analysts view the April 2 parliamentary election as a golden opportunity Sinhala chauvinism has bestowed on the Tamils. They are pleased that the LTTE has already seized the opportunity and won the international community’s acclaim by declaring that it would rigidly adhere to the ceasefire agreement.
They add that the Tamil people have gotten a second opportunity to confer legitimacy on the LTTE as their sole representative. This they can do by electing the nominees of the Tamil National Alliance which has publicly declared the LTTE as its sole voice. In 5 December 2001 Tamils elected 15 TNA parliamentarians who consistently maintained that the Tigers are the representatives of the Tamil people.
LTTE theoretician Anton Balasingham, in a statement issued from London, gave the assurance that the LTTE would rigidly observe the ceasefire. He said: “The LTTE leadership has amply demonstrated to the world their sincere dedication and commitment to peace and peaceful resolution of the conflict. In spite of the political turmoil and uncertainty in Colombo, our liberation organisation will rigidly observe the ceasefire regulations and maintain peace.”
Colombo-based diplomats expressed relief when they learnt about the LTTE’s stand. “The LTTE has proved that it is the trustworthy party of the two,” one diplomat said. The other party he referred to was the Sinhalese. Another diplomat, more concerned about fresh outbreak of war, said: “So, the fear of an eruption of war is not there.”
Balasingham said holding the fresh election “constitutes a grave set-back to the peace process,” and “clearly demonstrates the fact that the Sinhala political leadership lacks the political will and vision to resolve the country’s burning issue – the Tamil national question.”
The snap election that President Chandrika Kumaratunga announced Saturday night is bound to delay the peace process at least till the end of April. Resumption thereafter will depend on the political will of the new government. It is likely that Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Front (UNF) would ask a fresh mandate from the people to continue the Norway-brokered peace talks with the LTTE. It is not clear whether the new grouping, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), would seek such a mandate.
Indications are that, while mouthing the pious promise that they would uphold the ceasefire and negotiate with the LTTE, the UPFA would go in for a harder stance than the UNP. The UPFA would continue the propaganda line they have adopted so far and say Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government had conceded too much to the LTTE and had permitted it to strengthen itself making use of the ceasefire. It may, most likely, seek a mandate to negotiate with the ‘representatives of the Tamils’ which means, in Kadirgamar’s language, “not exclusively with the LTTE.”
Though the LTTE earlier announced that it was prepared to negotiate with any Sinhala party or grouping that obtains a mandate to proceed with the peace talks, Balasingham in his Sunday statement amended that position, laying down that such a mandate should “recognize the legitimate rights and aspirations of the Tamil people” and contain a “commitment to peace and peaceful resolution of the Tamil ethnic conflict.”
Analysts see in this amendment a shift in the LTTE’s position. They say Balasingham was trying to influence the Sinhala electors when he also placed the responsibility of deciding whether Tamils and Sinhalese should co-exist or not on the Sinhala people. He said: “It is the majority Sinhala people who have the final choice in the forthcoming elections to decide to co-exist with the Tamils in peace, harmony and prosperity or compel them to seek the path of political independence on the basis of their right to self-determination.”
The sentiments expressed by Balasingham were reiterated by Col. Karuna, the LTTE’s senior commander, on Tuesday. He said: “We urge the Sinhala people to reject obscurantism and chauvinism and to choose political forces that are forward looking for the sake of peace and progress.” He said the JVP’s policy on third party mediation and devolution of power was reactionary.
Meanwhile, Thamilselvan in his talks with the governments of the countries which he is currently visiting, and Balasingham, through his statement, are pushing the international community not to permit the Southern political clash to prolong the suffering of the war affected people of the northeast. They are pressing the international community to take immediate measures to assist the Tamil people who face severe humanitarian needs. The response had been favourable.
“The international community must see that funds don’t go into the hands of the government of Sri Lanka – , while ensuring that meaningful measures are taken to address the humanitarian needs of the Tamil people,” said Tamilselvan, in The Hague, Netherlands.
He added that aid money should go through the civil administration the Tigers created in the 1990s after they seized control of the Jaffna Peninsula and the north.
Political analysts say President Kumaratunga carefully and systematically planned her move to grab power over the past several months. She wants to reestablish her control over the government and parliament. For that, she planned a two-track move. The first, which failed, was to oust Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government by instigating defections in his camp. She engineered a split in the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and counted on the EPDP’s support. But she bungled her attempt to draw the disgruntled group from the UNP to her side.
The other option left for her is to win a snap election. She has worked towards that objective in the last few months. She took over the ministries of defence, interior and media on 4 November and brought the army, police and the media, all essential to win an election, under her control.
Her next move was to forge an alliance with the JVP, which polled 9.10 percent (815,353 votes) of the total votes cast in the 2001 parliamentary election. Her advisors have said that when this is added to the 37.1 percent (3,330,815 votes) her party, the People’s Alliance (PA), polled, the SLFP- JVP alliance would easily sweep the next election. Their percentage share of the votes would surge to 46.2, which would be 0.58 percent more than the UNF’s share of 45.62 percent (4,086,926 votes).
In actual votes, the SLFP- JVP alliance would collect 4,146,168 votes against UNP’s 4,086,926 votes, a majority of 59,242 votes.
Chandrika’s advisors calculated that this majority, though slender, would enable the SLFP- JVP Alliance to collect a higher proportion of the seats in 17 Sinhala majority electoral districts, obtain more bonus seats and a bigger share of the 29 national seats.
In the December, 2001 election the UNF (United National Front) won 114 seats in the 225 member parliament, PA- 77. JVP- 16, TNA- 15, SLMC- 5, EPDP- 2 and PLOTE- 1. Chandrika’s strategists have calculated that the situation would be reversed by the formation of the SLFP-JVP alliance.
Chandrika waited until the SLFP- JVP Alliance, which created the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) on 20 January, was registered as a political party by the Elections Commissioner to dissolve parliament. Till then she negotiated with Ranil Wickremesinghe to keep him off the track.
Both sides are now busy preparing for the election. They will be busy picking candidates till February 24. The election campaign will begin thereafter. It is expected to be violent. During the parliamentary elections in 2001 more than 60 people were killed. Vote rigging, preventing the voters from voting, abuse of state property, misuse of the media and the police are common election abuses.
During the 2001 elections, the European Union sent a group of officials to monitor proceedings. The EU delegation concluded that there had been large-scale violence and killings, and said some people were denied access to polling booths. It criticized the main parliamentary contenders for not calling on their followers to campaign peacefully.
The UNF asked the elections commissioner on Sunday to invite foreign and local officials to monitor these upcoming parliamentary elections.
“We have … asked the elections commissioner to invite international observers and also we believe that the participation of local observers is absolutely essential,” Power and Energy Minister Karu Jayasuriya said.
In the northeast, Colombo and the hill country power hungry politicians have begun their cutthroat competition to secure TNA nominations. Should all the old crooks be tolerated?