by T. Sabaratnam; originally published January 12, 2004
Weekly Review
Sri Lanka Scene
Political Chess Goes On
This year’s first cabinet meeting was held on Wednesday in the cabinet room. President Chandrika Kumaratunga did not attend it. Under the constitution, she is the head of the cabinet. She presides over its meetings. She has not attended a cabinet meeting since November 4, the day she snatched the powerful ministries of defence, interior and media from Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government.
Ranil served the ministers milk rice (kiri bath) and sweet meats before the commencement of the meeting. Lands Minister Rajitha Senaratne quipped: “This is better than what she would have served.” His reference was to Chandrika’s invitation to the prime minister and members of the cabinet for a New Year tea party at the President’s House after the cabinet meeting.
The ministers felt that the invitation to the tea party was a trick played on them. Chandrika was trying to resume attending the cabinet meetings. They told her that the cabinet meeting would be held in the usual place but they were prepared to walk over to the President’s House to enjoy her tea party.
Chandrika reacted angrily when she was told of that decision. She said: “If they are not willing, I am not willing. If they are not willing to come to my place, no kiri bath.”
This incident illustrates the degree of animosity between Chandrika and Ranil. Some analysts say that that animosity is the result of personal factors. Ranil and Chandrika’s younger brother, Anura, were classmates at Royal College. They were also friends. They used to visit each other and play together. Chandrika also played with them.
Others attribute their hatred to their political ambitions. Chandrika wants to continue in power after the end of her second term of presidency. For that, she must do away with the present constitution which limits the term of office of a president to two terms. She has been trying to do away with the constitution since 1997 when she tied the solution to the ethnic problem to the abolition of the executive presidency. The draft constitution she presented to parliament in 2000 did just that.
Ranil opposed her draft constitution not because of the proposals for devolution of power it contained, but because it tried to abolish the executive presidential system, abolition of which would allow Chandrika to remain in politics by contesting the parliamentary election and vying for the post of prime minister. Ranil wants her out of politics so that his path to leadership is clear.
“It’s their political future that Chandrika and Ranil are worried about, not the interest of the country,” commented an analyst who has followed this power struggle intimately.
And that personal ambition was evident from the briefing Ranil gave his ministers about his latest stand on the peace process. He told them of the shocking announcement he made at a public meeting at Paduwasnuwara on Tuesday and boasted that would put Chandrika on the defensive.
At Paduwasnuwara Ranil said: “If the president is firm in retaining the three ministries under her and proceeding with the peace process, then she must talk to the LTTE and renegotiate the agreement. Peace talks are dependent on the Ceasefire Agreement. We signed the Accord with the LTTE on the basis that the government had full authority to pursue such action, but that basis was destroyed due to the recent actions of the President. Therefore, as of today, some of the clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding had become obsolete. We cannot work contrary to the provisions of the MOU.”
The Prime Minister then announced his inability to continue with the peace process and asked the President to take it over. He said she could take over the peace process to which she says she is irrevocably committed, renegotiate with the LTTE through Norwegian facilitators, amend the provisions she had earlier objected to, and carry on the peace talks.
Ranil warned that the Ceasefire should not be allowed to become a dead letter. If that happens, the LTTE would tell the international community that the Sri Lanka government cannot be trusted.
Ranil explained his decision to the cabinet. He said some of the basic provisions dealing with the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, like keeping the army and LTTE’s fighting formations separate and preventing them from shooting each other, require control over the army. Such control had been taken away from him.
He was warned by some ministers that his Paduwasnuwara announcement had created the impression that he was running away from the peace process and that would harm his reputation and the image of the government. Ranil replied that interpretation was not correct. He was prepared to take forward the peace process if the three ministries were returned. If the President refuses to do that, Chandrika can take over the peace process and he would give her his support.
“This message should be taken to the people. I am for the peace process. I am not running away. If Chandrika takes it forward I will give her full support,” he said.
Political analysts see in Ranil’s new stand a masterly political strategy. Firstly, he is trying to force Chandrika to accept the Ceasefire Agreement which she had been criticizing and picking holes in. Secondly, he is forcing her to keep the Norwegian facilitation which the JVP, her new comrades, detest. Thirdly, he is forcing her to accept that talking to the LTTE is the only way out of the ethnic tangle.
Political commentator Dr. Pakiyasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) views the Prime Minister’s strategy thus: I think the Prime Minister’s statement should be seen in the context of the cohabitation power struggle and as an attempt to seize the initiative and put the president on the defensive. He is also putting pressure on the P.A – J.V.P. alliance the President is working on.
The JVP is violently opposed to the Ceasefire Agreement, to Norwegian facilitation, to talking to the LTTE and to the LTTE proposal for an interim administration for the north-east. It rejected the interim administration proposal, which it sees as the first step to the division of the country, and said the proposal should not be touched even with a barge pole. If Chandrika takes over the peace process, the JVP has threatened to abandon its effort to forge an alliance with the PA. Ranil wants that to happen.
Ranil’s strategy to push Chandrika to the defensive position has already happened. The Presidential Secretariat, in a statement issued on Sunday, said Chandrika had rejected as baseless Ranil’s accusation that she had imperilled the Ceasefire Agreement which had brought the cessation of fighting, drawn the LTTE into serious peace talks and pushed it to come out with its proposal for an interim administration within a united Sri Lanka.
Ranil on Sunday said the Ceasefire Agreement had laid the basis for a permanent solution to the ethnic problem and discarding it would reopen the conflict and the war. He is pushing the point that Chandrika has spoilt the rare opportunity he had created for the solution of the ethnic problem that had drained the resources of Sri Lanka and pushed the country towards economic doom.
No War assures LTTE
The LTTE, which carried on a silent campaign to make the international community realize the real nature of the Sri Lankan problem, has now decided to go open. Till now, as the LTTE’s ideologue, Anton Balasingham, told Minister P. Chandrasegaran, leader of the Upcountry Tamils Front, who called on him during his visit to London, the LTTE was telling the governments and institutions interested in the Sri Lankan racial conflict that competition among Sinhala parties to deny Tamils their rights was the cause of the armed freedom struggle.
Balasingham told Chandrasegaram that the LTTE has now told the international community four things. Firstly, they will keep the peace even if the government discards the ceasefire agreement. Secondly, they are ready to resume peace talks. Thirdly, they would talk only with the Sinhala leader who possesses the capacity to discuss issues and arrangements leading to a solution and the capability to implement the decisions worked out. Fourthly, they would work closely with the international community.
The LTTE has also asked the international community to persuade the Sinhala leadership to approach the Tamil problem as a national issue and treat it as a matter that needs to be taken out of their personal ambitions and power politics. The failure of all peaceful, democratic attempts to work out a solution to the Tamil problem was due to the contest the two major Sinhala political parties were engaged in in trying to prove that they served Sinhala interests better than the other party.
The LTTE’s political wing chief, Pulithevan, has been in Colombo since Saturday handing over invitations to the Colombo-based diplomats to attend a discussion with Thamilselvan at Kilinochchi later next week. “The response is encouraging,” Pulithevan told the Colombo media. “We will tell them that we are for peace and for a negotiated solution. We will explain to them the need to have an interim administration to undertake rehabilitation and restoration work,” he added.
The Sinhalese leadership is not keen to join hands and their bickering seems to be worsening. They are even talking of a parliamentary election, the main demand of the JVP. Its media spokesman, Wimal Weerawansa, told a media briefing on Sunday that a fresh mandate from the people is essential for the continuance of the peace talks. Through a fresh election, the JVP hopes to raise its parliamentary representation from the current 16 to about 35, which would give it power to dictate terms to any future government.
A parliamentary election is opposed by the business community which says that would hinder the economic growth the country recorded last year. The economy grew 5.6 percent last year due to the peaceful conditions and surging investment confidence. All that has been affected by the current southern political crisis. The business community is worried that a parliamentary election would push the JVP to a prominent place, thus sending danger signals to the international investment community and financial institutions.
India, too, seems to be worried about a parliamentary election. India fears such an election would result in a united Tamil group backed by the LTTE entering parliament. Indian intelligence agencies have calculated such a group to number between 35 and 40. That would strengthen the hand of the LTTE and the tiny Tamil groups India is using to exert pressure would be wiped out. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee pointed out this danger to Chandrika whom he met her at Islamabad and advised her against holding a parliamentary election.
Japanese special envoy Yashushi Akashi will be in Colombo on the 19th and will hold a round of talks with Chandrika, Ranil and Thamilselvan. Then on the 23rd he will preside over the meeting of the co-sponsors of the aid project. They may tighten the screws on the Sinhala leadership.