By: T. Sabaratnam, June 23, 2004
The situation in Sri Lanka today is that the 2-year-old truce will continue to hold despite the incidents in the east, but the prospect of the resumption of peace talks will recede.
Analysts rule out another war unless an unexpected explosive situation occurs. Colombo’s respected defence analyst Iqbal Athas summed up the current situation for Reuters thus, “There has been a rapid erosion of confidence. But that doesn’t conversely translate into war preparations.”
The government and the LTTE are not prepared to return to war because it would not benefit them. The government is governed by the fact that Sinhalese people abhor war. The peace constituency is very strong among the Sinhala people. For the LTTE the truce suits them most.
In the two years of calm the Sinhala south has reaped peace dividends — a rebounding economy, growing tourism, day-to-day security with no threat of exploding bombs and no return of black body-bags and wailings.
The truce benefits the Tigers considerably. They are consolidating their administrative structure in the areas they control. They also continue to win global respect and acceptability.
Athas says, “Every day that delays talks gives them [the LTTE] a very strong dividend in the form of consolidating the structure they control.”
An LTTE spokesman in Kilinochchi confirmed this reading of the situation by Athas. He said, “I think we feel we are on solid ground domestically. We are under no strain in sustaining this position.”
So, both sides have a stake in the truce. And that will hold them from firing their guns.
But, resumption of peace talks will become more and more difficult. Analysts attribute this to a variety of reasons. Three among them are important. The first is the mounting distrust between both parties. LTTE political chief S. P. Thamilselvan encapsulated the rising erosion of trust thus: “How can we trust a president who sifts her position every other day.”
His reference was to the two completely different positions President Chandrika Kumaratunga adopted on June 10 and June 12. On Thursday June 10 she told a meeting of Tamil National Alliance (TNA) lawmakers that she was prepared to talk to the LTTE on its Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal and thereafter about the ‘core issues. But on Saturday in her address to the nation she abandoned that position and linked the discussion of ISGA with ‘core issues.”
Of what she told the TNA members its vice president Joseph Pararajasingham, said: “When President Kumaratunga met us on June 10, she told us on her own volition at least three times that her Government is prepared to talk to the Liberation Tigers on the Interim Self Governing Authority proposal. She said that although she wanted core issues to be discussed in parallel, since the LTTE was adamantly against a parallel discussion, she has changed her mind.
“But she changed her mind again on Saturday, June 12. In her TV address to the nation she said the Government would talk in parallel about the ISGA and the core issues,” Pararajasingham said.
This shift in her position has made the LTTE and the Tamil people more suspicious. The current feeling in Kilinochchi is that Kumaratunga is adopting a strategy to resume negotiations to get the pledged international aid package and dismiss the ISGA at the outset and then allow the talks to amble and keep the Tigers pinned to the negotiation table.
Kumaratunga’s shifting position had made things difficult for Norway to fix an agenda for the resumption of peace talks. Norway’s attempt last week to work out an agenda for talks ended in a stalemate. Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar’s meeting with Thamilselvan at Kilinochchi and Special Envoy Erik Solheim’s meeting with Anton Balasingham in London failed to break the deadlock. Both told the Norwegians of the past experience of the Tamil leadership and said implementation of the ISGA is a prerequisite for the resumption of talks.
Destabilizing East
More than Kumaratunga’s shifting position, the government’s duplicitous policy of war and peace and its complicity in the Karuna affair have contributed to the erosion of any trust the Tigers had in Kumaratunga.
Ramanan, a Tiger senior commander in Trincomalee district, characterized the government’s posture as ‘double acting,’ pretending that it is interested in peace while preparing for war. He asked, “How can we trust a government which says one thing and does another? Does the government desire war or peace? Let it spell that out clearly,” Ramanan told a meeting Tuesday.
To show its displeasure with the government’s duplicity, the LTTE announced on Wednesday its withdrawal from the regular review meetings with the army. These meetings are held regularly to sort out the differences between the army and the LTTE.
The LTTE accused the Sri Lankan security forces on Saturday of aiding and abetting Karuna. Ramesh, Special LTTE Commander for Batticaloa-Ampara, told the media at Thenagam in Kokkadicholai, “We have confirmed reports that the Sri Lanka Army is giving shelter to Karuna and that the Sri Lanka military is trying to use him against the Liberation Tigers.”
“If the Sri Lanka government tries to wage war against us making use of Karuna, there will be serious repercussions and we will not hesitate to take appropriate action,” he said.
Ramesh accused the army intelligence of complicity in the recent killings in the Batticaloa district and charged it with spreading false information about a clash between the LTTE and Karuna group in the Thoppigala jungles. “There is no truth in it,” he said. Independent sources confirmed Ramesh’s version.
Ramesh announced on Saturday that four senior women cadres, including the military and political wing leaders who were with Karuna, have re-joined the LTTE early this week. He said the four women cadres would meet the media soon.
The four senior women, including former women’s military wing head Nilavini, met the media on Monday at the LTTE conference centre, Solayakam, about 18 km southwest of Batticaloa.
Nilavini, who did most of the talking, gave a graphic account of the events since April 11 evening when Karuna decided to flee his camp in Kudumbimalai. “Karuna Amman called us in the evening and said his cadres had failed to put up a fight against the Vanni forces. He said the battle was going against them and added they have no option but to flee. He asked us to join him. ‘If you stay I am not sure how Vanni leadership would treat you,’ he said.”
She said Karuna, his spokesman Varathan and about 15 senior males decided to join Karuna. They (the four women) also decided to join him. “We left the camp in the evening in two vans and traveled to Pulipaynthakal. When we reached there it was getting dark. We found some vehicles including a double cab waiting for us,” she said.
They were told that UNP parliamentarian, Ali Zahir Mowlana, was helping them to escape. Nilavini said that she knew that Mowlana was a schoolmate of Karuna. They were taken through Dambulla to Kurunegala and then to Colombo.
Mowlana admitted to the BBC that he helped Karuna and his group to escape. He said he did that on humanitarian grounds and that he had no contact with Karuna after he was taken to Colombo. This ‘humanitarian act’ had cost Mowlana his seat in parliament. He was United National Party national list nominee to parliament and former Parliamentary Affairs Minister. Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe called him on Wednesday and asked him to resign his seat in parliament. Mowlana resigned and left the country.
Nilavini said they stayed in the Hilton Hotel in Colombo for four days during which time the leader of a pro-government Tamil militia group, Douglas Devananda, telephoned Colonel Karuna and asked him to join him.
”We were first put up at the Colombo Hilton Hotel for four days. Thereafter we (including Karuna) stayed in a safe house somewhere in Colombo for 7-8 days. Later, we were moved to another house by the SLA intelligence from which we could see the Apollo Hospital,” Nilavini said.
She said Karuna’s wife and two children came down from Malaysia and joined Karuna when they were in the first safe-house. She said Karuna’s wife was very dominant and she dictated to him. She was only concerned about leading a luxurious life, Nilavini said.
She said some female LTTE cadres from Vanni had contacted her on her mobile phone and asked her and her colleagues to return to the movement. Karuna’s wife had noticed them talking over the telephone and told it to Karuna. He had then taken the mobile telephone from them.
Nilavini and her colleagues said they had overheard Karuna talking to EPDP leader Douglas Devananda. The EPDP chief had invited Karuna to join him, but Karuna had declined. He told Devananda he preferred to work separately. He had said he wanted to form a separate political party and work with the military intelligence.
She said a plain clothes bodyguard armed with a pistol guarded Karuna and added that military intelligence officers visited him.
“We were upset when we found out that Karuna is acting in collusion with the army. We told him that we did not want to have anything to do with army intelligence. We asked him to send us back to our families. Karuna offered to send us to Saudi Arabia or to India where we could study,” Nilavini said.
She said they could see the Apollo Hospital from the second safe-house in which they lived. The Apollo Hospital is situated in the Colombo suburb of Narehenpita. The army has a camp in this area.
Nilavini said on June 13 Karuna told them that he was going abroad with his family and left the safe-house the same day in an army vehicle.
She said that, following Karuna’s departure, she contacted a relative in Batticaloa and escaped to the East with his help.
Nilavini’s account exposed the role of Mowlana and the Sri Lanka Army in the Karuna affair. Though Defence Ministry Cyril Herath has repeatedly denied the army’s involvement. the LTTE leadership has informed Norway and other countries of the government’s double role.
“The LTTE is convinced that President Kumaratunga is deliberately pushing the strategy to destabilize the east…and this is reflected in the tougher language emerging from Kilinochchi,” an analyst said.
“The LTTE is undoubtedly becoming distant from the present government. There is no cohesiveness so there are a lot of things that have created suspicions in their mind,” said Athas.