by Rajkumar Sivapathan; February 12, 2004
The events in the past couple of years have changed the life style and attitude of most people in the world. The attack on WTC and the events followed affected many people. The main thing that affected the Tamils was the hurried inclusion of the LTTE, the only organisation that struggles to win their rights in Sri Lanka, into the category of “terrorist” group, without proper investigation of the actions of the Sri Lankan government, the organisation the LTTE is fighting against. It appears that the major players in the world, have made up their mind how to take post-9/11 situation forward, no matter what. After the break up of the former USSR and the demise of socialism, it appears that the world has lost the inertia to compete with some one. Therefore, it has become necessary to create a competing partner (or several partners) for this. During the cold war period, the Eastern block has been the single partner to compete with in all areas, such as, military, science, trade and commerce. It is not advisable to create another single partner again, in case that partner proves to be difficult to compete with. Therefore, it was necessary to create several partners and each partner can be made to specialise in one or two areas only, not all. This is only a small requirement in the new world order. The major requirement is the uninterrupted supply of energy resources which is vital to the trade and commerce.
The major energy source, the oil, is controlled by the Middle East and there is a need for “stabilising” that region. 9/11 provided an excellent opportunity and the opportunity was grabbed to pave the way to make sure of the “uninterrupted supply” of oil and, most essentially, to prepare the ground for the new world order. It is the latter that affected the Tamils and the LTTE most. All these years, the plight of the Tamils had only provoked a minor response (mostly none at all) from the major players in the world. It is not that these players did not know what was happening. The fact is that the Sri Lanka was not important enough to interfere.
So, what was the plan to prepare the ground? The Europe and North America are the partners in most of the major competition, including commerce and science, etc. There are other regions that have emerged to pose a serious competition in certain quarters. South Asia, mainly India, is one of them. These regions/countries that have been identified as partners have to be freed from their current “pre-occupation”. The main pre-occupations of South Asia are the internal struggles between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and the Tamils’ struggle for independence in Sri Lanka. Even though the Sri Lankan internal war was regarded as immaterial previously, it has become a major issue to prepare the ground in South Asia. This explains the sudden interest in the Tamils’ plight by the major players. Obviously, this has left India confused a bit. As by nature, Indians have picked up the idea and want to make sure that anything that happens in Sri Lanka is not out of tune with their regional interests.
What does it mean to Tamils? It appears that the LTTE has been successful in getting the major players to know what is really happening in Sri Lanka. It is not that these players did not know that before, but the fact is they have now witnessed what is happening. To prepare the ground, there are two options. One is to resolve the problems in the region first and get on with the job. Second is to minimise the problems so that they don’t affect trade and competition. The preferred option depends on the situation in those countries/regions. As far as Sri Lanka is concerned, the requirement is that the war has to stop, it should be in line with the rest of the countries in the region (mainly India) and once it has been achieved, it should prevail for a reasonably long period. As far as India and Pakistan are concerned, the threat of war has to go away and the Kashmir problem has to be sorted out. The Indo-Pakistan relationship is mostly a love-hate relationship. (It is said the people of India and people Pakistan love and admire each other, but the leaders hate each other.) It is evident that the western powers are keen on India and Pakistan reaching an agreement to avoid war because both are nuclear powers. There is a possibility that the people of Kashmir will be left in limbo, if India and Pakistan agree to avoid war altogether. This is part of the second option mentioned above.
In Sri Lanka, the war has been stopped. The problem is in the next step. A reasonably permanent peace is the requirement of the new world order. The Tamils, the LTTE and most of the Sinhalese people who have lost their children in the army have no problem with that. They don’t even have major problem with the Indian desire to be the regional superpower and its regional interests, whatever they may be. The problem is the urge of the Sinhalese ruling class to get their piece of the cake, while India is driving to establish its superiority in the region. This urge has the history that the Sinhalese rulers never wanted to share power with the Tamils in Sri Lanka. If this continues and the major players and India are content with the “no war, no peace” situation, Sri Lanka will be in limbo, too. That means we will be back to square one and the likes of the JVP will offer only village councils and urban councils to Tamils as the solution for the civil war. If the new election, which was totally unnecessary, brings in a government with no power or desire to take the peace process forward, the first casualty will be the “no war, no peace” situation. It is in the interest of the major players in the world, India, Sinhalese people and the Tamils (almost all the people) that the government of Sri Lanka is pressurised to carry on the peace process.
Rajkumar Sivapatham
Harrow
UK.
Originally published February 24, 2004