by Vasantha Raja; TamilCanadian, February 20, 2004
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) seem to be outsmarting the Sri Lankan state in its global propaganda battle. The dragging political crisis in the Sinhala establishment, the rise of militant Sinhala-Buddhist fundamentalism, president Kumaratunga’s moves to undermine the peace process and give leadership to the overtly chauvinist social forces in the south and the arbitrary sacking of the majority government in Colombo – all have contributed to a growing image of the Tigers abroad as a politically more mature leadership. Needless to say, a sweeping electoral victory for the LTTE-backed Tamil candidates in the northeast would enormously strengthen Tamils’ bargaining position internationally….
Sri Lanka is about to have perhaps the most crucial general election in its entire history on April 2 (April 1 might have been more appropriate!). The fate of the two main issues currently facing Sri Lanka – the economy and the Tamil question – will depend largely on the election’s outcome. Let me look briefly at the Tamil question. (For an in-depth analysis of the economy, one can refer to my Sinhala-language booklet: “The fate of Sri Lankan economy & the global monetary crisis”, published 2003; Sarasavi Bookshop, Nugegoda, Colombo.)
Signals from the north suggest that kick-starting the peace process towards an initial realistic settlement with the Tamil leadership will depend on Colombo’s willingness to negotiate the LTTE’s proposals for an interim self-governing authority (ISGA) in the northeast. The ISGA proposals indicate clearly that the LTTE anticipates some advanced form of federalism as the ultimate solution to the conflict – not separation as some suggest.
Sri Lanka’s constitution, however, rules out any type of self-governing structure, let alone any advanced form of federalism. Since a two-thirds parliamentary majority is required to change the constitution, an interim settlement based even on a diluted form of federalism is a dead letter. Thus, the precondition for realistic negotiations to resume will be Colombo’s ability to reform the constitution – that is, to secure a two-thirds majority in favor of a federalist constitution.
Given the existing proportional-representation electoral system, and the balance of strength between the two opposing political forces within the Sinhala electorate, the chances are very slim of either party winning a two-thirds majority.
So the chances of re-starting realistic peace negotiations will depend on the political processes that emerge immediately after the general election. And emerge they will, for everybody is mindful that this election, is about, above all, the peace process. Even the immediate future of the economy depends directly on the peace process, in that the decision of donor countries to hold or release billions of dollars is linked to it.
In my view, there is a very positive side to this election. It represents an advanced stage of the internal battle within the Sinhala-supremacist ideology. In previous elections, the ideological battleground was limited to relatively abstract notions of ‘war’ and ‘peace’. Now the issue is far more concrete – whether to negotiate the ISGA proposals or not. Fortunately, the ‘terrorism’ issue no longer obscures the picture.
The ISGA proposals are federalist in essence. Only those that accept the notion of federalism would be able, meaningfully, to negotiate the LTTE’s proposals. Explicitly or not, that would entail seeing the Tamils as a minority nation, rather than an ethnic minority. And that demands, inevitably, a leap in the existing Sinhala consciousness.
To repeat, the central issue in this election is not ‘terrorism’ or even ‘war’. It is the ISGA proposals. The Sinhala political establishment is right now (if we ignore the egoistic and other selfish interests of some individual politicians) in essence split precisely on this issue. The president-Kumaratunga-led SLFP-JVP alliance has become the rallying point for all ‘unitarist forces’ who reject federalism as a solution to the Tamil question. The Wickramasinghe-led UNF, on the other side, represents those Sinhala forces somewhat willing to negotiate the ISGA proposals with the LTTE.
A constitutional change allowing a self-governing interim administration in the northeast could only occur if a substantial number of Sinhala politicians from the two major Sinhala political parties join hands with the Tamil and Muslim MPs – irrespective of which party forms the government. But the circumstances under which such a miracle could happen is the million-dollar question.
There are three factors that may persuade Sinhala politicians to favor re-starting peace negotiations immediately after the elections. Firstly, the donor countries have indicated unwillingness to release billions of dollars of funds unless the peace process is back on track. Secondly, the donor countries may decide to give development and rehabilitation funds directly to the LTTE-run organizations to carry out the humanitarian projects within Tamil territory.
(In this context, one should consider the success of the recent European tour by a high-powered LTTE delegation, which made precisely this request to donors. And also the fact that at a recent meeting, donors, while linking aid to the peace process, emphasized that funds to the north-east must “continue to flow” irrespective of circumstances in the south.)
The third factor that may persuade Sinhala politicians re-start negotiations immediately is the possibility that Tamil leaders will appeal directly to the United Nations to exercise their right to self-determination, in order to declare independence. This must be considered in the context of the fast-changing image of the LTTE internationally. Recently, the organization has emerged in the eyes of the global community as patient, cool-headed and statesmen-like, in sharp contrast to the image of corrupt, petty-minded, self-centered and chauvinist politicians in the south.
Indeed, the first-hand experience of many high-level foreign dignitaries visiting the Tamil north – personally talking to LTTE politicians, seeing the appalling suffering of Tamil people in war-devastated areas, witnessing government bureaucrats’ mishandling of humanitarian projects in the northeast – has contributed enormously to the LTTE’s image abroad.
Most Sinhala politicians must be mindful of this new reality. They must be well aware that an electoral victory to the chauvinist forces led by Kumaratunga – and any disruption to the peace efforts so painstakingly built up over the past couple of years – may well strengthen the Tamil case for independence before the United Nations.
The Sinhala side should realize that the ball is now well and truly in their court, and make sure that the Tamils are not forced back onto the separatist path. The Tamils also on their part should allow sufficient time for the Sinhalese to undergo the difficult metamorphosis.
From a Sangam member: One serious error. The Constitution requires in addition to a 2/3 majority in parliament, a national referendum for its structure to be altered from an Unitary to a Federal Constitution
Originally published February 22, 2004