by Michael Kugelman, Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, Washington, DC. September 25, 2024
Presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake leaves a polling station after casting his ballot in Sri Lanka’s presidential election in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Sept. 21.Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images
Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential election on Saturday granted the public’s abiding wish for a fresh political start. Dissanayake ran on a pledge to do away with corrupt and dynastic politics. He has no links to the country’s powerful political families, and his party was involved in the protest movement to oust then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022.
As he settles into office, Dissanayake can count on public support in his ambitious effort to clean up politics. But his status as the change candidate will also present him with significant obstacles in his dealings with three key groups: the political opposition, the business community, and the country’s religious minorities.
Dissanayake is a more complex figure than some depictions suggest. Headlines describe him as a Marxist; in the 1970s and ’80s, his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party waged violent campaigns against those it called imperialists and capitalists. But Dissanayake is no revolutionary: He has renounced that past and participated in the system that his party once opposed.
Dissanayake, 55, has been a member of Sri Lanka’s Parliament for more than two decades and briefly served as a cabinet minister in 2004-05. Despite his anti-corruption plank, he is not a traditional populist, either: He supports free trade and assistance from international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, Dissanayake is still strikingly different from most of Sri Lanka’s political class. Three of his main opponents on Saturday reflected that: They included a six-time prime minister and incumbent president, an opposition leader and son of a former president, and a Rajapaksa scion. Dissanayake’s anti-corruption plank makes him a maverick by Sri Lankan standards, and the JVP has only three seats in Parliament.
This is also where Dissanayake faces a challenge: Sri Lanka’s Parliament is currently stacked against him. A party led by the Rajapaksa family holds a majority, with 145 of the 225 seats. The party of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, one of Dissanayake’s main election opponents, holds another 54 seats.
Like many populists, Dissanayake has been uncompromising toward his political rivals, suggesting little desire to reach across the aisle. As a result, many of these opponents may not be keen to help him out with legislation. This week, Dissanayake dissolved Parliament and called early legislative elections in November; these polls could boost his party’s parliamentary clout but won’t necessarily stop rivals from trying to obstruct his agenda.
Dissanayake may have an uphill battle with a business community that is nervous about his Marxist past—and his current positions on the economy, which are unorthodox compared with those of his recent predecessors. Sri Lankan political experts expect Dissanayake to pursue protectionist measures, including efforts to spearhead more domestic production while favoring small and medium enterprises.
Another concern for the business community is Dissanayake’s long-standing vow to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s current IMF deal so that it eases hardships on the poor—potentially risking tensions between Colombo and a donor that it can’t afford to lose.
Finally, Dissanayake will need to win over Sri Lanka’s minority communities—especially Tamils, who make up Sri Lanka’s largest ethnic minority. Many people haven’t forgotten the JVP’s unconditional support for the brutal government campaign against Tamils during Sri Lanka’s two-decade civil war. In the election, Premadasa had earned key endorsements from the Tamil community.
Dissanayake’s best option is the simplest one: to engage with his skeptics. In his inauguration speech on Monday, he called for unity. His legislative agenda will have a better chance of success if he is also willing to reach across the aisle. Meeting with the business community and foreign investors to clarify his positions and hear their concerns would also help. Frequent outreach with Tamils and other minority groups would send further reassuring signals.
This outreach wouldn’t just be good politics for Dissanayake. With the economy still reeling, doing more to ensure unity in the face of such a serious challenge would also serve national interests.