The Hindu: ​On the 2026 Assembly Elections

In West Bengal, the BJP has achieved a decisive victory through long-term planning, aided by the State’s political history, a tainted election process, and the exhaustion of the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s politics that had run its course. Bengal has been home to India’s national movement and to Hindutva ideas long before they spread elsewhere, and has carried a strong sense of regional identity. The BJP, through years of meticulous organisation, converted a threshold population of the State to its totalising nationalist narrative. Having subsumed the regional politics of Maharashtra, Assam and Odisha, it had set its sights on West Bengal with obsessive determination, and has won. The TMC faces existential danger, with its founder-leader Mamata Banerjee at 71 and its cadre and voters now susceptible to pressure from the BJP. This election was also the most tainted in India’s elections: around 27 lakh people were arbitrarily removed from the electoral rolls, and the Supreme Court of India took an unhelpful view of that grave assault on the fundamentals of democracy. If that is the sign of things to come, it is cause for serious concern.

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF’s overwhelming victory is as notable as the pitiable performance of the CPI(M)-led LDF. The LDF’s defeat belongs principally to outgoing Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who — uncharacteristically for the State and more so for the Left — had built a personality cult. The BJP has won a historic high of three seats, but the UDF’s return, while restoring Kerala’s traditional alternation in power, could act as a speedbreaker to the BJP’s ambitions. The Congress faces the immediate task of amicably settling the question of Chief Minister from among three potential candidates — K.C. Venugopal, V.D. Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala. The election results strengthen Home Minister Amit Shah’s hand within the BJP’s internal dynamics, as the party has grown into a behemoth harbouring multiple interest groups and ambitious leaders. Mr. Shah was the key strategist in West Bengal, and Mr. Sarma in Assam is firmly aligned with him. A reconstitution of all party organisations and a possible reshuffle of the Union Council of Ministers will likely reflect his preeminence in the days ahead. The BJP, by its capacity and willingness to expand its footprint across regions and social groups — oftentimes bending norms — is placing immense pressure on India’s federal democracy. The DMK and the TMC have been bulwarks of Opposition politics within and outside Parliament, as demonstrated in the recent parliamentary vote on the Delimitation Bill. With both beaten at the hustings, and buoyed by its victories in Assam and West Bengal, the BJP will feel tempted and emboldened to continue its course of unilateralism. It would be in the interest of the country and of democracy for the BJP to be accommodative and sensitive towards diverse aspirations; while platforms of regional political mobilisation such as the TMC and the DMK will have to adapt to new challenges. The regional parties in Assam and Kerala too faced a setback, suggesting popular fatigue and an inclination towards larger frames of reference mediated by social media. As for the Congress, these results represent victory in Kerala, defeat in Assam, and a lost opportunity in Tamil Nadu. The defeat of the DMK and TMC sets the stage for a potential realignment of the Opposition, opening the possibility for the Congress to aggregate and galvanise social and other interest groups — and to position itself as a weightier axis of anti-BJP politics.