by V. Gunaratnam; published April 18, 2004
An air of theatre hangs over Sri Lanka as the country is caught up in a chaotic transition process after the general elections. There is a sense of dark plots being hatched, and cloak and dagger things going on behind the scenes, while the UPFA struggles to cobble together a working coalition against the backdrop of a failed attempt to exploit renegade Karuna’s defection.
There has been no rush by other parties to get on board to establish a majority in parliament. Even the UPFA alliance was shaken by JVP’s open show of defiance against Kumaratunga for not delivering on promised cabinet portfolios, despite its major contribution to electoral success. This will however melt away soon, because the destiny of this parliament is irrevocably tied to the two remaining as sleeping partners. But it’s an ominous sign of how the JVP tail is going to be wagging the SLFP dog in the days ahead!
CWC’s Thondaman is waiting in the wings, to enter the scene and play a role in UPFA’s coalition, if the script is acceptable. Thondaman always had one foot in Kumaratunga’s camp and one in Ranil’s, and while he is not averse to taking orders from India, he will not shy away from acting in CWC’s best interest, and play along with the UPFA. But he must know that CWC’s long-term fortunes are tied to the mainstream Tamils, and the need to keep this in perspective while using every viable short-term opportunity to advance the economic well being of up-country Tamils. SLMC’s Hakeem is also weighing his options.
At the other extreme, the JHU have unequivocally stated how they are opposed to any devolution of power as presently conceived by the LTTE, and if their position does not change, it could disrupt the peace process, and provoke the resumption of hostilities, as LTTE have warned. The JHU have an improbable ally in the JVP in this, and a powerful one in that the JVP has the power to force issues within the government. Together they are a very formidable force to contend with.
On the other side of the political divide, the LTTE is again left pondering Kumaratunga’s real intentions, and whether she has the appetite for continuing with the peace process. There are some telling signs she is talking peace while preparing for war, and this is reinforced by a long history of bitter disappointments, problems and distrust, in her relationship with the LTTE.
The attempt to exploit renegade Karuna’s defection was the first of Kumaratunga’s acts to change the parameters of the peace process. It was a ‘divide and rule’ strategy designed to weaken LTTE’s negotiating position, and maybe provoke war. But a daring counter offensive by the Tigers destroyed Karuna’s short-lived power grab, and brought it to an end like so many others in the past.
In the end, it not only backfired on those who engineered the defection, but also served to further enhance the already legendary reputation of the Tigers. Kumaratunga and her generals were stunned by the swift strike back by the Tigers that left them to suffer the indignity of yet another crushing defeat by the Tigers.
Next, there was a clear attempt to interfere with the democratic process, ahead of parliament convening for its inaugural sessions, by the brazen action of Sri Lanka army personnel to restrain the free movement of the Batticaloa MPs who were in Colombo to consult with their TNA colleagues, while renegade Karuna held sway in Batticaloa.
It appears that Defence Secretary Herath, armed forces chief General Balagalle and their minions were acting in complete disregard of the law, on orders from their political masters, to frustrate the will of the Tamil people. Karuna’s defeat ended this highhanded action. But the implications are quite frightening.
In another disturbing development, India is being assiduously courted to become their cat’s paw. From new Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse down, they have been pleading for India to get involved in the peace process. Even the JVP, once so stridently opposed to India, has joined the chorus of welcoming voices.
Kumaratunga dispatched General Balagalle to New Delhi, to drum up support for strategic defence cooperation with India, even before elections had been declared. Following up, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar added his two-cents worth, with his “on the verge of a golden era of relations with India”. Quite obviously they are well orchestrated initiatives to win over India.
Nobody is being fooled by Kumaratunga’s “defence cooperation” with India, or what is expected of them, while obviously, the JVP has other things in mind for India besides peace. All that sweet talk about peace was nothing but pure rhetoric. It will need a profound shift from words to deeds to re-establish credibility.
No one, least of all Tamils, can see a direct role for India in the peace process after their “peacekeepers” robbed, raped and killed thousands of innocent Tamils during their infamous peacekeeping campaign in Tamil homelands between 1987-1990. Ignominiously many Indian soldiers also died fighting the Tigers.
Whichever way the political process turns, it will finally end up confronting Kumaratunga, and the all-powerful presidency over which she presides with a Machiavellian grip on the machinery of government. Since 1994, when she first assumed the presidency, she has done everything as president to live by Lord Acton’s maxim “absolute power corrupts absolutely”. Her reign is a matter of painful history for the Tamils.
The new political dynamic in the country has again consolidated power in Kumaratunga’s hands. Whether she can be persuaded to play a more constructive role, and usher in the peace and prosperity that have eluded Sri Lanka ever since achieving independence in 1948, is the big question.
Up to now, nothing seems to have deterred her from continuing with her political adventures. Just to win power, she shut down parliament, stalled the peace process, forged an alliance with the extremist JVP and went to the polls, and came out with mixed results. Her actions, however, have done nothing to advance the political or economic interests of the country or its people.
In Don Quixote style, she took a tilt at the LTTE with renegade Karuna; now she is tinkering with the constitution to abolish the presidency and become an all-powerful prime minister; and in another move, she is courting India to join her and “manage” the peace process. But as always her actions have had this dark side to them, when dealing with the LTTE or the Tamils. This mental aberration, and her apparent inability to understand it, is what is probably holding her back from successfully dealing with the Tamil question.
There is already an established peace process in place, working documents for interim devolution of power, and draft proposals for a permanent power sharing arrangement, which have won the stamp of approval from the international community, and a bagful of promised financial aid for the economy and reconstruction. Every possible element is in place for achieving peace and prosperity.
All that remains is for Kumaratunga to negotiate in good faith and arrive at an accord. As far as the LTTE and the Tamils are concerned, the government of Sri Lanka, by signing on to a peace process and taking it forward, committed itself, and succeeding governments, to an irrevocable process, for all practical purposes. No new government can, therefore, pull out of the process or seek to change anything unilaterally, or return to a war footing. By extension this also applies to the LTTE. To do so would be to incur international condemnation, and harsh economic and other sanctions.
There is no question the international community carries the biggest responsibility for coaxing the Sri Lanka government and the LTTE forward to reach a settlement. They must necessarily take a firm stand against any attempts to deviate from the established process and agreements. The key to success is their power to impose swift economic and other sanctions. It should work like magic with a Sri Lanka government under the UPFA, which has promised the people so much with so little resources, and so little time to do it.
Huge tensions have been created amongst the general Sinhalese population by power sharing talk, not because the concepts behind it are anywhere near being well understood by them, but because Sinhalese politicians have intentionally chosen to raise their peoples deep-seated fears about division of the country. This political mantra has worked so well over the years that to this day it is the Sinhalese politicians’ raison d’etre. This is why no one has tried to educate and enlighten Citizen Perera. But this will have to change.
Let it be put in the simplest terms. What the Tamils are seeking is equal rights, nothing more or nothing less than what the majority community enjoys at present, the restitution of the rights, which were taken away by the illegal constitution of 1972. And what they see coming with those rights is the unfettered right to manage their own affairs, within a united Sri Lanka. Is this something so difficult to digest, understand or concede?
What fears the Sinhalese leaders and people harbour is completely illogical, because of the history of the last two decades. The LTTE and the Tamils have de facto been in charge of their homelands, despite the incursion of the Sri Lanka armed forces, from time to time, to try and change the status quo. The central truth, which the rulers in Colombo have failed to grasp up to now, is that the Tamils cannot be forced to accept anything less, because power is in their hands to change anything within Tamil homelands.
And let it be said again that any adventurous campaigns by the Sri Lanka government to deviate from the peace process or provoke and start a war, would surely end in devastation, the likes of which Sri Lanka has never seen before.
The Tamils search for peace will only end when their aspirations are met.