by Roy Ratnavel; originally published February 11, 2004
“Will someone tell me what the hell this is about?”
— Rock Hudson at the Los Angeles premiere of 2001: A Space Odyssey
There is no denying that the political arena in Sri Lanka has been filled with unpleasant aromas recently. In addition to manufactured geopolitical fears, Tamils have had to deal with one of the worst media witch-hunt in the postwar era, not to mention an odoriferous political tug-of-war.
In a world full of ranters and ravers, thinking or commenting about the future has always been challenging, as Rock Hudson’s puzzled reaction to the movie 2001 illustrated. Even though he was talking about the movie, Hudson might as well have been talking about the moribund political climate in Sri Lanka– where almost everyone is confused by what’s in store in the real year 2004 and beyond. I would argue that if you’re not confused, you probably haven’t been paying attention!
There is an old story about a young boy who bounds down the steps on Christmas morning only to find the living room brimming over with horse manure. Ever the optimist, the boy finds a shovel and starts digging with enthusiasm. When asked why he seems to be so excited, the boy cheerfully replies, “With all this manure, there must be a pony in here somewhere!” But I digress.
The optimists who predicted a sudden peaceful resolution got it wrong due to the peace talk euphoria of late 2002. At the same time, the pessimistic predictions of an outright political meltdown didn’t come to pass either because of the remarkable restraint shown by the parties involved. In short, this political tug-of-war has a way of making both the extreme optimists and the extreme pessimists look a little silly. The consensus among political forecasters is that the ‘magic’ moment will soon arrive. This is partly a bet that with time the showdown with the Tamils will be resolved. It is also, as is the case with all forecasting, a guess. In reality we might have to wait for years before the political news turns unambiguously positive for Tamils – or longer.
The political events of the past year in Sri Lanka have certainly diminished our ability to trust each other. Trust will always be a magical commodity that is difficult to earn and easy to lose, and a healthy skepticism will always be needed to help you avoid getting conned, because mankind is always prone to deceive others. Rudyard Kipling once said, “If you keep your head about you while others are losing theirs, you can make excellent investment returns.” Well, may be he didn’t put it in the context of a nagging political situation like the one Sri Lanka is experiencing, but a disorderly and comical Sri Lankan government was the Tamil’s political return in 2003 – received by merely keeping their heads just above others’.
Also similar to financial markets, the political arena sometimes rewards contrary thinkers handsomely. It seems this very strategy by the Tamil leadership may have paid off very well – at least for now. The world, as philosopher Wittgenstein once noted, “is non-stationary. It moves around, and it does so in ways that make prediction problematic.” With Sri Lanka tiptoeing and tripping around the question of Tamil independence, the political situation appears now to have changed direction again, but this time for the better, at least from the Tamils’ perspective. Perhaps Old Man Time may be a welcome visitor this New Year as he ushers out 2003, a year filled with more uncertainty and bad news than we have had in a long time.
I think there are a number of good reasons to look forward to 2004 as a year of ‘Tamil Legitimacy’, but have no choice but to add a major caveat: all of the variables we normally look at could be overshadowed by further negative shocks from the organized media front and tampering by countries signatory to the conflict. Political conflicts are often like flying. Frequent fliers are used to turbulence. When the skies get a bit choppy, the captain asks passengers to take their seats and fasten their seatbelts until he can find smoother air. Occasionally, when the ride gets very turbulent, the captain asks the cabin crew to take their seats as well — even if they are in the midst of serving dinner. With the kind of political turbulence in Sri Lanka, if we were flying a jumbo jet, one would now ask the cabin crew to take their seats and fasten their seatbelts. While we all still expect and hope a safe flight — it could be an unpleasant one for a while.
That said, with the exception of Sri Lanka’s recent brinkmanship of seeking advantage by creating the impression that one is willing and able to push a highly dangerous situation to the limit rather than concede, all of the above is basically old news. Even if we do have to wait awhile for clear signs of a resolution, the Tamils throughout the centuries have shown a remarkable capacity for muddling through hardship. Despite unprecedented setbacks, a nagging political problem, a sharp increase in cost of living, and a wave of non-reality-based media propaganda that decimated our collective IQ, Tamils got by with the mildest inconvenience on record.
It is tempting to say that failure in solving the Sri Lankan conflict is nothing new, or that some progress has been made. Both points would be correct, but neither is compelling. The recent developments, the resulting state of emergency, the onset of war-weariness is worrisome to both parties of the conflict. Despite these lurid aspects, should those of us who want to remain optimistic feel as naive as the young boy searching for the pony? Maybe not.
Call it the year of the pony.