by V. Gunaratnam; published March 29, 2004
On the Brink
As Sri Lanka stands on the brink of plunging into the murky waters of post-election politics, a veritable Pandora’s box full of political imponderables awaits the Tamils – a Tiger revolt, JVP shenanigans, Buddhist clergy in politics, and a powerful new political alliance. All hell will break loose as elections results start flooding the country on April 2, and the mad scramble for power and position starts. That’s when reality will dawn on the political scene, and the testing time for Tamils will begin anew.
A House Divided
Tamils’ agonizing concern today is Karuna’s revolt. There is a fear everything could fall apart if this cancer is not excised at once. Make no mistake about what’s going to happen when the new government is installed in power. Whether it is the UNP or the JVP-SLFP alliance, Karuna will be their prime concern, unless he has already been neutralized, because all the sweet talk about peace means nothing when they have the chance to crack open the chink in the LTTE armour.
In fifty-six years of independence Tamils got nothing. Only after the LTTE was born did the Tamils’ cause come to life. Both sides have only been talking so far but substantive rights have still to be negotiated and won. But the revolt has put all this at risk.
The LTTE and Tamils worldwide are scrambling to put in order a house divided against itself. It is critical that the LTTE recovers to its at full strength and is ready to parry the political and military pressures that are looming. There is no question that the revolt must be put down forthwith for this to happen.
Government Strategy
The incoming government will move to divide and weaken the LTTE, if the Karuna factor persists, despite the pre-election peace overtures to the Tamils, and an ominous silence on the revolt. Don’t be fooled by this; every covert action will be taken to divide the LTTE and destroy their unique negotiating position.
They can be expected to play hardball at every opportunity, to try and water down Tamil demands for autonomy, with the implicit threat of force or abandonment of the peace process hanging over them. Predictably, the defence chiefs will add to the complications by counseling the early use of force.
No ruling party can be expected to ignore the new ground realities caused by the rift within LTTE ranks. To do so would be to commit political suicide.
Only the timing is in question. The government will want to probe various strategic imperatives, marshal its resources, make diplomatic overtures, and exhaust nominal negotiations before making any moves to test the resolve of the LTTE.
Extraordinary Powers
The president of Sri Lanka has extraordinary powers to do anything as head of state, head of cabinet, commander-in-chief of the armed forces and police, defence minister, and so on. The powers extend to the proroguing of parliament, approving and making cabinet appointments, dismissing ministers, and so on.
These powers are heightened by the fact that the presidential actions cannot be challenged in a court of law, placing the president in an unassailable position to make or break governments, and virtually do anything else.
It is crucially important to understand and concede what the president can do with such extraordinary powers, whether it is for a peace that has eluded the country for so long or any other constructive purpose. Two very important corollaries follow from this.
Pivotal Role in Peace Equation
First, it will be a grave mistake to ignore Chandrika Kumaratunga, and shunt her out of the peace equation, considering the enormous powers vested in the presidency. She is also head of one of the two major political parties, without whose support there is little chance of carrying through the constitutional process to settle the Tamil question.
Ranil’s failure at cohabitation, and his constant adversarial stance against Kumaratunga, not only brought down his government, but it radically changed the political landscape of the country, with incalculable consequences for all.
He missed a golden opportunity to turn the political process around, and bring the peace process to a successful conclusion. Its will now be immensely difficult to return to the status quo, even if he is returned to power, given the powerful new forces aligned against the UNP. The Tamils and Sinhalese may pay heavily for this monumental political miscalculation.
A Fresh Approach
Second, the LTTE must work to bring Kumaratunga into the peace equation, if the UNP is returned to power, despite past disappointments and difficulties with her. If her alliance wins power, it should still not deter the LTTE from assiduously working to win her cooperation and, at the same time, bringing the UNP into the process in some way, even though Kumaratunga will not easily forgive Ranil for shutting her out of the earlier peace process.
With the alliance in power, and the Karuna factor persisting, the peace process would initially be put under enormous strain. But international support for peace will force the alliance to the negotiating table, pick up lost momentum, and go forward. The UNP too will have to be brought into the process, with LTTE and international pressure.
These are un-chartered waters, and a way forward has to be found, however remote that possibility might appear to be now. The grand consensus of the major parties holds the key to success. The LTTE will have to be the bridge builder, by design or choice, because it’s in their self-interest to do so, and their unique position mandates this.
Irrevocable Peace Process
What’s going to be the post-election scenario like? The UNP, by entering into a peace process and taking it forward, committed the government to a near irrevocable process. Any new government will not be able to deviate from this path or return to a war footing without incurring international condemnation, and harsh economic and other sanctions. And by extension, this also applies to the LTTE.
But governments have a certain freedom or leeway to stray from these limitations, on allegations of state security violations. The LTTE does not have this luxury. On the other hand, the LTTE has earned the trust and goodwill of the international community, by acting with considerable restraint and integrity, and this should serve as a strong bulwark against any adventurous campaigns by the government.
But any temptation to leave the peace path must be strenuously resisted by either side. Any such move would certainly lead to a new wave of death and destruction that could destroy the peace altogether.
Kumaratunga’s presidency has two more years to run, but the peace process cannot be put in deep freeze until she is out of the picture, because the imponderables are too many and the risks simply unacceptable. Peace cannot wait. And the people’s trust must not be violated.
Leadership and Way Forward
The LTTE must actively work with Kumaratunga, the government of the day, and the other major political party, to consolidate peace, address the real fears and concerns of the Sinhalese (and Muslims), find a way of meeting Tamil aspirations, and steer through the constitutional process.
The political, economic and human toll Sri Lanka has paid in the last half-a-century is incalculable, and to be mired in this state for much longer will be senseless, cruel and immoral. It cannot be wished away, nor will it go away on its own. Only the good sense, humanity and political will of its leaders can vault the country into the idyllic sanctuary it once was to all Sri Lanka.