by V. Gunaratnam; published March 18, 2004
Magical names that once stirred the imagination, Pearl of the Orient, Teardrop of the Indian Ocean, Taprobane, Resplendent Isle, and Serendib, redolent of the lingering sun and emerald waters, lush tea gardens and aromatic spices, sparkling gems and intricate crafts, domed dagobas and towering temples, now conjure up nothing but a tarnished image of a paradise lost, a country torn by the blood and tears of a people struggling for freedom, and endlessly frustrated by the machinations of politicians.
The curse of the Bandaranayakes is again on us as CBK derails a peace process that had been going well up to now. Dissolving parliament and decreeing elections brought peace talks to a screeching halt, making a mockery of the unequivocal international legitimacy the talks had won, and depriving the Tamil homeland of funds for reconstruction.
CBK’s action was nothing more than a naked power grab, playing on the fears of the Sinhalese. Negotiations on autonomy had not even started when she dismissed parliament, and in the aftermath, did everything to placate the LTTE, belying her earlier accusations of security violations and concerns. It made nonsense of her actions, and added to the suspicion that there was something more sinister driving events in the wake of a newly minted JVP-SLFP alliance.
When a democratically elected government is turned out of office by executive fiat for political gain, wielding the monstrous powers of the presidency, Tamils have to fear the worst. For years, CBK has been toying with their aspirations, under cover of her ‘War for Peace.’ Talk of peace was just a ploy to buy time, while her armed forces rained death and destruction on the Tamil homeland.
CBK, like all previous leaders, had her head in the sand, never really wanting to accept the conflict was really about liberation and was not an insurgency, and dismissive of the LTTE’s strength and the Tamils’ indomitable spirit. But with the humiliating debacles at Elephant Pass and Katunayake, the perception grew that the LTTE could strike at will, anytime and anywhere, and people began to question her war psychosis, which soon turned the tide against her.
The rest is history. In the general elections that followed, the UNP swept into power with a strong peace mandate, and immediately launched into their peace agenda. But as negotiations began to make progress, CBK fearing its success could mean her political demise, torpedoed the peace talks, plunging the country into chaos.
Dark clouds are again gathering over the country. The nation has come full circle since the UNP came to power, and the same destructive forces of ethnic prejudice, fear, and intolerance that once stalked the land are being resurrected and harnessed by CBK and the JVP to win power. The prospects are frightening and people are apprehensive of the outcome. Who will deliver peace, prosperity and stability?
The JVP-SLFP alliance is a bundle of contradictions. The JVP wants to end everything going with the LTTE, and possibly provoke war, reminiscent of their bloody past that saw 60,000 Sinhalese killed in the armed insurrection. Many in the SLFP see them as the enemy within, the dangerous usurpers. CBK is not bothered by such scruples, and won’t be deflected from her quest for power. She is ready to play hardball with the LTTE to get them to water down their demands, but not averse to restarting the war on a whim.
Against this, the UNP can be expected, other things being equal, to continue with the peace process that has stood them so well politically up to now. After years of living in fear and seeing body bag after body bag returning from the war front, the yearning for peace is palpable. Perhaps this will be enough to carry the UNP back to power, notwithstanding CBK’s propaganda blitz through the media ministry under her control now.
On the economic side, the SLFP and the JVP present even more starkly different choices. The SLFP flirts with the ideas of free market economics. The JVP on the other hand is wedded to the moth-eaten, old, and discredited economic theories of the communist world. More damning is their complete lack of experience in governance. To think such a dichotomy would work is like hoping a cart being pulled in both directions at the same time will go anywhere!
In contrast, the UNP is strongly business oriented, solidly tied to free market concepts that have worked well. In the short time in power, they succeeded in stimulating the economy, and attracting foreign investment. And with the tranquility that peace generated, people enjoyed the feeling that the good times were returning. Unfortunately, the UNP’s success was the red flag that stampeded CBK into killing the peace talks, instigated by the JVP.
Imagine taking a big leap forward in time and seeing one party succeed in coming up with an agreement on autonomy for the Tamils. It would still be faced with the very daunting task of steering it through the constitutional process in parliament, and a referendum. No party would be able to carry it all through on its own because to get the required two-thirds majority in parliament would need more votes than any one party can muster on its own.
What stands in the way is the peace dividend, the huge political and economic bonanza that will be credited to the party that succeeds in establishing permanent peace and opening the door to sustained economic prosperity. This means there will always be a big winner and a big loser, making a grand consensus between the UNP and SLFP inconceivable. It could be political suicide for the party that votes with the government to change the constitution. But it is still crucially important who is elected to govern, because so much is at stake.
CBK became president in 1994 with a lot of goodwill, and the promise she wouls usher in peace, stability and prosperity. With her PA in power, she had all the legislative power needed to fashion solutions to long-festering problems, but she did nothing. Instead, she used the monstrous powers of her presidency in unpredictable ways, defying democratic norms, and good governance, to corrupt everything – the political process, judiciary, police and armed forces, and economy. She has left us nothing but the bitter wages of war.
The picture for the UNP does not inspire any more confidence either. DS was the first to betray the Tamils. Soon after independence in 1948 he disenfranchised hill country Tamils. Then it was JR. He devised the monstrous presidency in 1978, that has hobbled the country ever since. But it was Chandrika’s mother, Mrs B, who destroyed Tamils’ fundamental rights with her illegal Republican Constitution; JR just mangled it further to create his equally illegal Unitary Constitution. But unlike CBK, has the UNP done anything recently to inspire confidence and trust?
The UNP has a very solid record of political and economic achievements. They made the peace with the LTTE that is still holding well. Their flexibility and good faith helped to advance the process to the verge of negotiation on devolution of power. In the short time in power, they raised the country’s international profile and attracted foreign investment and aid. On their record, the UNP can be trusted to shepherd the peace process further, and tackle the myriad problems facing the country. The choice is really between good deeds and empty rhetoric.
But there is a joker in the pack now. The entry of the Buddhist clergy into the electoral process is threatening to spoil the calculations of the major parties. It breaks with long-held Buddhist traditions, but the move by ultra-nationalists to get monks to postpone their quest for Nirvana to attend to the mundane business of securing the supremacy of Sinhala Buddhists in Sri Lanka, cannot be dismissed lightly. If the election numbers come out right for them, they could complicate a constitutional settlement being reached with the Tamils. But the rapidly changing political scene in Sri Lanka has also brought up other concerns.
Recent events in Tiger country have caused tensions to rise and cloud the peace horizon. An air of intrigue and uncertainty hangs over everything. But the world knows that a people fighting for their freedom will fiercely repulse any force trying to exploit the situation for its own ends. The Tamil diaspora worldwide is also rallying strongly to the cause of unity within Tamil ranks, while anxiously waiting to see how the fragile peace will be affected.
CBK will be the wild card in any post-election scenario. With war no longer an easy option for any side, everything could end up in a difficult stalemate, unless she decides to play a decisive peace role. Two things have to happen for this to be realized, no matter who wins the elections. As a first step, the JVP will have to be sidelined because of their avowed opposition to meaningful powersharing with the Tamils. Next, there must be a rapprochement with the UNP, and a powerful political quid pro quo to cement it.
At the moment this looks like the stuff of dreams, but so does the chance of any constitutional change getting through parliament. Don’t forget, CBK still has two more years in office, and for any party to ignore this would be at its own peril. In this setting only a benign outside force would be able to work the miracle to bring all the contending parties together and reach a solution.
Let the power, prestige, and financial clout of the international community be used to assist the government, the opposition, and the LTTE to effect the desired transformation in Sri Lanka’s political scene, backed by unimpeachable guarantees. After decades of political, humanitarian, and economic decay, there is a feeling that the general mass of Sri Lankans are passionately longing for such a transformation.