Tamil Guardian editorial; London, published April 23, 2004
Restored Deadlock: The prospects for peace are at their lowest
IF THE point of the April 2 general election was to end the political imbroglio that had deadlocked Sri Lanka’s government for months, the results had precisely the opposite effect. This week found all three major Sinhala parties at each others’ throats and, most importantly, singularly capable of thwarting the others’ ambitions. President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) had hardly swept the United National Front (UNF) from power, before its constituent members, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the (now considerably strengthened) Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP) fell out, squabbling over the spoils of victory: ministerial portfolios. Meanwhile dissent erupted in the ranks of the UNF as its national list revealed some surprises. With the elections leaving no single party able to command a majority or readily assemble a coalition, the inevitable frantic horsetrading of the past few weeks has also failed to deliver a decisive advantage to any player. As such, with the government still eight seats short of a working majority in Parliament, the first order of business, the election of the Speaker, was inevitably going to be a bitterly fought affair.
To President Kumaratunga’s utter frustration, no doubt, it was the opposition candidate that scraped in – albeit with an embarrassing majority of one! As close observers of Sri Lanka’s politics know, the most pressing issue for the President is the extension of her political life. She needs to abolish the powerful Presidency and assume the office of Prime Minister in the course of the year. The present premier, Mahinda Rajapkse, has already signed his undated resignation. And whilst the Norwegian peace process drifts unattended, President Kumaratunga has already set about redrafting the constitution – as if it were a party manifesto. The opposition, however, has thrown a spanner in the works today: without a sympathetic Speaker, the UPFA and President Kumaratunga will not be able to table legislation in Parliament without the UNF’s acquiescence.
A bad way to start? Undoubtedly. But surely truly representative of the state of Sri Lankan politics, and reflective of the self-centred priorities of the various Sinhala leaderships. Consider the crisis that Sri Lanka is in: the Norwegian-brokered peace process, which used to be regularly hailed as the ‘best chance yet’ to end the protracted ethnic conflict, remains stalled, the economy is yet (and increasingly unlikely) to lift off and international assistance has been put on a tight leash. Admittedly the cease-fire remains stable, but prospects of a political solution, which gradually dimmed through last year, are now the lowest ever. The ascendancy of the ultra-nationalist JVP and the spectacular performance of the hardline monks of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), meanwhile, gives little cause for hope. But once the logic of politics as serving the country or the people is ditched, matters make more sense. The SLFP and JVP, bitter foes till recently, joined forces merely to topple the UNF. Both hope rule the roost on their own in future and are primarily concerned with paving the way for that. The UNF’s main objective, on the other hand, is to keep the ruling coalition unsteady and frustrated until elections hopefully give it another shot at government.
THE peace process is of course the key to Sri Lanka’s future. This is no liberal axiom, but a practical reality. International funding – i.e. the economy’s lifeline – is conditional on progress in the peace talks. The resettlement of a million displaced people has been made hostage to the same. And while a permanent end to the conflict needs a durable and equitable political solution, this will not be easily reached (indeed those who doubt if it will ever be reached at a negotiating table are not entirely unjustified). As such, it would not be unreasonable, in the hands of responsible leader, to expect the peace process to transcend party political interests – just as much as waging war, for example, might! Instead the major Sinhala parties routinely vie to assume the least compromising stance on the ethnic question and the Norwegian initiative. Of course, stopping the talks is the single issue of concern to the fanatics in the JHU.
On the other hand, the Tamil polity stands solidly united – behind the red and yellow banner of the Liberation Tigers, who this week reiterated, yet again, their commitment to a negotiated solution. On Tuesday, the 22 MPs of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) met with the LTTE leadership to plan their joint strategy. Mr. Vellupillai Pirapaharan, the LTTE’s leader, was accompanied by top leaders from almost every major arm of the movement, underscoring the emphasis the Tigers are putting on this Parliamentary venture. The LTTE is understandably keen to resume the negotiations and thereby begin addressing the needs of its (now demonstrable) support base, the Tamil populace. But the UPFA has already rejected the Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) proposals the movement submitted last October (indeed, the submission of the document provided the excuse for President Kumaratunga’s ‘constitutional coup’ which led to the present deadlock). The government insists it will negotiate with the LTTE, but this mantra is for international funders’ attention only. The practical realities of coalition politics dictate otherwise.