SWOT Analysis

by R Shanmugananthan; published April 14, 2004

It was a swift operation commencing Friday. By Monday it was all over. It took only three days to retake the entire liberated lands in Maddu-Amparai. In these three days an area comprising many thousand kilometres have changed hands with minimal disruption to civilian life. Once again the LTTE has emphatically demonstrated its military capability. Expected stiff resistance from Karuna did not happen. Until recently he was a top level LTTE commander who had thousands of fighters and the necessary weapons. Mercifully, the LTTE out-manoeuvred him with ease. Karuna’s fighters were not willing to fight to protect his selfish goals.

Tamil people living in all parts of the world have heaved a collective sigh of relief. On the other hand, this must be a great disappointment to our enemies. Their hopes of a debilitating, long drawn-out war did not materialise. Their hopes of Karuna holding the Maddu-Amparai area and helping them to divide and destroy the Tamil people will not be possible any more.

Things are back to normal and business as usual. However things won’t go back to square one. Karuna has knowingly and unwittingly caused great harm to the Tamil people; in particular to the Tamil people living in Maddu-Amparai. He has militarily weakened the LTTE in the East. His activities have tarnished the image of the LTTE. He has also tried to sow seeds of regional division with the help of our enemies. In a nutshell his actions have created many weaknesses and worsened the threats faced by the Tamil people.

Unwittingly he has also created some opportunities and strengths. It has alerted us to various shortcomings that need to be studied and addressed. A study of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats created by the Karuna saga must be done and used to advantage. All issues must be identified with the help of people who are in the field . I have tried to identify a few of the issues and some ways to tackle them.

1. Two years of cease-fire have dulled people’s awareness of the dangers lurking from the South. There is a need to carry out a quiet educational process. People must be conscious of the fact that permanent peace has not occurred and the LTTE must continue to protect Tamils as long as it is necessary. Tamil people must be made aware that any weakening of the LTTE will undermine the present tenuous peace enjoyed by them.

2. It is also necessary to explain to people about the winds of change that are happening among the Sinhalese such as the increasing popularity of the ultra-chauvinistic parties like the JVP and Jathika Hela Urumaya. It is dangerous to ignore their opposition to negotiations and power-sharing. Tamil people have the implications of these changes clearly explained to them.

3. Some media are carrying out subtle propaganda that the LTTE is not for all Tamils. Though Tamil people will not easily buy into this sort of propaganda, it is wise not to take chances. Some educational process is needed to make it clear to people that the LTTE is for all Tamils. This is also an area that should not be taken lightly.

4. Karuna tried to create regional differences. Though this was ignored by people of Maddu-Amparai in preference for Tamil unity, this must also be addressed in an unemotional, sober and professional manner. Grievances must be recognised and carefully analysed and solved. They should not be used as a weapon to point fingers and cause division. Also the harm division can cause must be brought up as matters for discussions.

Relieved as I am by the end of Karuna saga, I am also worried about the future. Hence I have put my suggestions in this brief article.

Comments are disabled on this page.