by K. Mylvaganam; Tamil Circle #3380, March 28, 2004
The election fever is catching up hotly in Sri Lanka. Unlike in the previous elections the people of Thamil Eelam too seem to be taking a keen interest in the same. It is not because to see which of the two leading Buddhist Sinhala chauvinistic parties – the UNF or the PA-JVP is going to win but the Tamils are interested in electing a large number of Tamil parliamentarians to the parliament. The reason is that every one is sure that it is going to be a hung parliament. Neither of the two major parties is going to get an absolute majority to form a government of its own. There are going to be 196 parliamentarians elected to the parliament.
In addition to them a further 26 candidates will be appointed on a proportionate representative basis. This will total the number of parliamentarians to 225. Hence any party that can muster 113 seats will be in a position to form the government. The million-dollar question in Sri Lanka today is as to whether this is possible under the present election system prevailing in Sri Lanka. “Thanks” to the late J.R.Jeyawardene, who produced the present constitution that does not practically make it possible for a single party to achieve this magical figure of 113. Hence any party that gets the support of the minority community parties will get the chance to form the government. Even the previous government, before, it was dramatically dissolved by the “all powerful” President, was solely dependant on parties like the S.L.M.C, the C.W.C and the U.C.P.F to form the government.
The TNA did not join the government but was giving indirect support to it in order to ensure that the peace talks with the L.T.T.E. proceeded smoothly. This is one of the reasons, why the S.L.M.C. could not exert much pressure on the government on their many demands including the one to participate as a separate unit for the Muslims in the peace talks. The S.L.M.C was fully aware that even if they walked out of their union with the government yet the government would not have collapsed because the TNA would have propped up the government to go through its full term of office so long it kept up the peace talks alive. But the TNA of course would not have accepted any ministry post for their support but would have held the government on its pins for the rest of its term.
Under the present circumstances the T.N.A. is going to be a powerful force in the forthcoming elections. The political analysts here in the island (I am writing this from Kilinochchi inVanni) strongly believe that neither of these two major factions is going to obtain a clear mandate from the people. Some believe that the Chandrika’s coalition with the JVP may get a slight majority over the U.N.F. But there are certain analysts who seem to put their bets on the U.N.F. superseding their opponents. It is the proportionate representation that is baffling everybody.
For example during the last election the J.V.P. would not have got many members elected to the parliament if it was under the former system of voting. It is the proportionate representative system of voting that gave them 15 seats in the parliament.
The pact between the UNF and the CWC has assured them victory in the Nuwaraeliya, Badulla, Matale and Kandy. This rules out the possibility of the SLFP/JVP alliance the possibility of gaining 113 seats even if it wins all the rest of the seats in the rest of the country outside the Tamil homeland of course. Besides most of the analysts here surprisingly seem to be ignoring the “Christian” factor in the oncoming election. The discriminatory oppressions committed against the Christian community, both Sinhalese and Tamil, recently and the burning and demolition of churches numbering over 100 have pushed the Christians towards the UNF.
Besides those who were on the receiving side of the JVP terrorism in the seventies and eighties are still licking their wounds. I hasten to add that there are exceptions to this. I may cite the President Chandrika for example as she seems to have either forgotten or forgiven the JVP for murdering her charismatic husband Vijaya Kumaratunga once a most popular film idol. She herself has accused the JVP openly as the murderers of her beloved husband.
The votes of the unforgiving lot too will be for the UNF. A higher percentage of the minority communities too will align themselves with the UNF. But we should not forget the fact that both the major Sinhala parties viz the SLFP and the UNP do have their own fast vote banks. For example in the 1994 elections the UNP-SLMC-CWC coalition polled 4,191,372 and the SLFP and JVP put together got 4,146,168 votes. I am getting an intuition that the JVP is going to be the winning party in the oncoming election. They may even double their present strength of 15 to 30 or even more. The looser will surely be the SLFP as the JVP is going to steal from their (SLFP) vote bank. If my predictions were to come true then those senior members who opposed the SLFP/JVP merger will rise in full fury against the Bandaranaiyakies – both Akka and Thamby. Will this end their political career? Only time will tell.
Not much has changed since 1994. If at all there is any change then I will say that it is to the favour of the UNF. And that change is the Christian and Minority Community factors. In 1994 Chandrika was a favourite of the Tamils. Remember the Chandrika bangles and Chandrika sarees? Despite the “Peace Dove” figure and the block votes of the Tamils, she got only a single seat majority in 1994.
I will say that this is going to be a “neck to neck” fight. But I will safely put my bet on the UNF horse.
Courtesy: Tamil Circle #3380, March 28, 2004
Originally published March 29, 2004