by V. Gunaratnam; published May 10, 2004
Power to change
Power springs from the people, not a piece of paper that is a country’s constitution. When power becomes an instrument of oppression by the tyranny of the majority, as against the Tamils of Sri Lanka, the need for justice empowers those oppressed to seek such remedies as are necessary to free themselves from decades of political exploitation by fraudulently conceived and imposed constitutional changes.
It has been a bitter harvest for the Tamils, for fifty years since independence in 1948. By 1983 hopes of a just solution had all but vanished. Caught in a downward spiral, Tamil fortunes have plunged steadily to political, social and economic impotence. But that changed drastically when the Tigers joined the struggle.
The Tigers, the youthful cadres of the LTTE, became the flag bearers; they came to the forefront and took charge; and thus began the fight against the discriminatory laws of Sri Lanka in deadly earnest.
Carnage and fear psychosis
Claiming intervention was necessary to maintain peace and security in Tamil homelands, the government of Sri Lanka unleashed a genocidal war to quell the agitation – kill, destroy, and subdue the Tamils.
But every onslaught was beaten back and the Sri Lanka government was forced to the negotiating table, with the humiliating defeat of their armed forces by the Tigers. What do you do when an overwhelming force threatens to kill and destroy you? There was no choice. The Tigers had to fight back fiercely in self-defense, driven by a duty to stop the wanton killing of the innocents and the destruction of their lands.
Over 60,000 innocent Tamils perished in the carnage, and hundreds of thousands were displaced, and forced out of their homes to live in utterly inhospitable places, with barely any shelter, food, medicine, or security, while others found refuge in foreign lands. There was a horrendous catalogue of crimes against innocent Tamils: rape, robbery, imprisonment, torture, and mass killings.
The price paid by the Tamils and the Tigers was high, very high. Sadly there is nothing left of the tens of thousands who perished but ashes. Only the thousands of homes, schools, farms, businesses, temples and hospitals that were mindlessly destroyed are left, as silent reminders of what can happen even in a civilized country like Sri Lanka where noble principles are supposed to order the life of the many.
Half a century later, the Sinhalese are said to be still gripped by fear psychosis or is it just the invention of politicians? We don’t know why they fear the Tamils. After all, the Tamils want nothing more than the freedom to manage their own affairs within a united Sri Lanka, and enjoy the same rights and freedoms as the Sinhalese that they won together, and were guaranteed under the constitution of 1948.
How this could harm the Sinhalese or diminish their rights or enjoyment of their freedoms is impossible to imagine, understand, explain or accept. It defies simple logic. It is baffling.
Whither the peace process?
Very high stake political games are now being played out in Colombo as Kumaratunga scrambles to cobble together a parliamentary majority to get her agenda on peace and other matters moving, but infighting within the alliance and strong arm tactics against others have put everything at risk for the UPNF.
The peace process is at a standstill. Kumaratunga shut down talks in November 2003 in a blatantly transparent power-grab, and six months later, we are still in this suspended state, while a deceptive calm hangs over the country, and peace momentum and goodwill are fast ebbing away.
Kumaratunga has a lot of homework to do. If she restarts the peace process she runs the risk of alienating the JVP and JHU, who are vehemently opposed to it. The JVP has to be kept happy as a powerful alliance partner, and the JHU’s support is critical for survival in parliament. On the other hand, if she tries to soft paddle on the peace process to placate the JVP and JHU, she would be accused of breaching existing agreements; alienating the LTTE; and earning the wrath of the international community.
But her preoccupation now is not with the peace process, but to change the constitution, and become an executive prime minister. Changing the constitution makes sense, because without it no autonomy for the Tamils would be possible, and all the signed and sealed agreements would come to naught. Changing the constitution to settle the national question is not the priority for Kumaratunge, rather her political future is. She has however to accomplish three immensely difficult tasks for success: trying to cobble together a parliamentary majority, restarting the peace process, with that of changing the constitution.
With the CWC and the SLMC still coy about working with the UPNF, the JHU has emerged as the single most important party capable of propping up a majority in parliament. But the speaker’s election fiasco and the JVP’s intimidation tactics against the JHU have put their support in question.
The government seems to be just going through the motions of restarting the peace process. It’s all a window dressing to get foreign assistance flowing freely again. But everything is bedevilled with the many contradictions in Kumaratunga’s position vis-à-vis the peace talks – her own strong opposition to it; the pre-election agreement with the JVP to scuttle the process; and the maneuvering to get JHU support in parliament in the face of the JHU’s strong opposition to the peace process and the Norwegians.
The LTTE being past masters at deciphering Sri Lanka government duplicity, are not being fooled by Kumaratunga’s rhetoric or her lip service to the peace process. They want to be reassured that she is going to stick by agreements and the positions accepted previously. Any move seeking to change the ISGA, the federalism concept, reconstruction, and the return of refugees is likely to be rejected.
Imagine the goal posts being moved and the rules of the game being changed every time a new government assumes power in Sri Lanka, and the game is started all over again because the other side did not like how the game was progressing. It is like saying heads we win, tails you lose! The LTTE will not accept this. The Tamils have been deceived before. But it is a tactic that could be used to drive the talks to a standstill, force the LTTE’s withdrawal, and give Kumaratunga the freedom to reconstitute the peace process.
If Kumaratunga falters and fails she will pay a very heavy price. She could face impeachment, or legal action after she leaves office. There are many questions hanging over her regime about fraud, corruption, assassinations, constitutional and human rights violations. It could bring her political career to an ignominious end. But for now, she is still there and fighting. Will the Tamils be able to cash in?
The grand design
Kumaratunga has a Machiavellian grand design to stay in power. She plans to abolish the presidency, replace it with an all-powerful executive prime minister’s position, and become its first incumbent. Temple Trees has already been reserved for her! At the same time, she wants to modify the electoral system to make it possible for single-party majorities to be elected, and thus keep her party in power.
But as the parties stand at present, she does not have the necessary votes needed to change the constitution. Without TNA votes it will be impossible for her to do this. But does it matter who delivers on the Tamils’ core demands? Since Kumaratunga is in power, she gets first chance to try and persuade the LTTE and the TNA to work with her. If her government falls, then Ranil will get to try.
This is how it could unfold. Kumaratunga yields to the LTTE’s core demands in exchange for TNA votes to change the constitution; changes are drafted, presented in parliament and passed with TNA support; it is steered through to get a simple majority in the referendum; the LTTE and the Tamils get what they want; and Kumaratunga gets to becomes the new executive prime minister.
No doubt, there are other players in this high stakes game who have to be taken care of before any changes can be presented to parliament. The stiffest opposition will come from the extremists, the JVP and JHU. At the other end, the UNP is not going to sit idly by and be buried politically. They will do everything to whip up public opposition, even stir civil commotion, to deny Kumaratunga and protect their ground.
The Maha Sangha’s blessing is also crucial to the success of the constitutional process. It could be that the place of Buddhism in the country would need to be restated and elevated, and enshrined anew in the constitution, to placate and reassure the Sangha about Buddhism’s pre-eminence.
But there are pitfalls. Any government could roll back or repeal the constitutional changes affecting the Tamils, in the future. The international community’s protective umbrella will be needed as a safeguard.
Finally, the wisdom of any decision by the LTTE to embark on this course of action with Kumaratunga must be tempered by her questionable track record, and her real motives. But the LTTE may not want to lose this golden opportunity to wrap it all up, if there is a good chance it would work, and the risks can be minimized.
National government
Exactly the same results could be achieved with a national government, as a far healthier alternative to the present alliance, with nearly everyone allergic to the Marxist JVP. It would be much easier, more acceptable to the international community and the people. But the big question is, will it ever happen?
Only a national government formed with the UNP, SLFP and other moderate elements can think of getting constitutional changes passed in parliament and the referendum. It never came near to being formed in the past, and there is little hope it can be done in the prevailing harsh political climate.
If the UPNF government were to fall and the UNP assumes power, the result would be the same, because the UPNF has well over one-third of the parliamentary votes needed to easily block any move to change the constitution. It’s like a constitutional stalemate when these two parties work at cross-purposes.
Tragically, the Tamil question has always been caught up in a kind of vicious circle. All sorts of political permutations and combinations in the past never worked. The situation today is much more complex, after two extremists parties having sprouted up to poison the waters.
There is increasing alarm, if the constitutional maneuvers now being made fail, extra- constitutional means could be used to grab power. Only with time will clarity emerge from this developing situation, but it is all the more reason why progressive forces in the country and the international community must urgently move to settle the Tamil question, and prevent any political adventures being undertaken.
India has no credentials to play a direct role in the peace process, because its intervention in 1987-90 in Sri Lanka was a human rights disaster for the Tamils. India still must play a constructive role because of its regional power status.
International intervention
The world can no longer be a silent witness to the suffering of the Tamils. They must act now to give relief to the refugees, and restart urgent reconstruction work. Action is needed to bring about reconciliation, and enforce a political solution along the lines developed from 2001. But the people of Sri Lanka must get involved in some way and not leave it entirely to politicians.
It’s not a political game of deception anymore, and there is no point in railing against the Tamils or the LTTE from far away. The leaders of government, from president down, and political parties must go and see for themselves the ravages of war. It would be also be good for the Maha Sangha and monks to make the trip, and so must ordinary Sinhalese
Many questions would still need to be answered on the way to achieving peace before going to the people. All this should be the prelude to the international community entering the peace process, rallying the progressive political parties in Sri Lanka, and seeking a comprehensive peace settlement.
Gift to people
Another carnage awaits the country if the peace process fails. There won’t be any victors left at the end of it this time. If the Sri Lanka government does not come to its senses, unite the progressive forces behind it, and reach a settlement with the Tamils in good faith, it would be left to confront the unthinkable (for the government), and there is no need to spell out what the Tamils are thinking!
It would be a truly remarkable achievement for Sri Lanka to bring the conflict to a permanent end and embark on an irreversible peace process to bring resolution to a conflict that has raged interminably for more than half a century. There can be no greater service to the people of Sri Lanka.