by Dr. Victor Rajakulendran; originally published February 26, 2004
Will President Chandrika Bandaranayake Kumarathunga’s snap election solve the current political impasse in Sri Lanka?
Background of the impasse
Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranayake Kumaratunga (CBK) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesighe (RW) have been locked in a power struggle for months. The feud reached a climax last November when CBK seized control of three key government ministries, and came to a head when she announced snap parliamentary elections three years before they were due. This is going to be the third general election in the island in the last four years.
Although CBK and RW were childhood playmates, they are now feuding with each other because CBK wants to remain in power even after she finishes her second term in office and the Prime Minister wants to become the next President. The present constitution, which was installed by RW’s uncle and late President J.R. Jayawardene, does not allow a President to contest after serving for 2 terms in office. As a result, CBK has to either retire from being the leader of the country at the end of her present term in office or try and change the constitution before that, to bring back the old Executive Prime Ministerial System (EPMS). If she choses the latter, she could hope to become the future Prime Minister of the country with Executive powers.
CBK became the President for the first time in 1994 with the promise that the first thing she would do when elected would be to change the constitution to abolish the Executive Presidential System (EPS). As a result of this promise the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), with which CBK has formed an alliance recently, withdrew its presidential candidate to make way for her victory. However, CBK not only is enjoying using all the Executive powers for 2 terms without keeping her promise, but also has misused these Executive powers in various ways after November 2003.
CBK could have achieved her objective whether RW was the Prime Minister or the opposition leader (to change the constitution a 2/3 majority in parliament has to agree and this cannot be achieved without bipartisan support) if not for the family animosities that prevail between both of them. CBK’s father, S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, was a founding member of RW’s United National Party (UNP). He was later forced to leave that party and form the more nationalistic Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). This party is led by CBK now. RW’s newspaper publishing company “Lake House” was nationalised by CBK’s mother, the late Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranayake. This action only pushed RW, a professional lawyer, into politics instead of into running the family newspaper company.
RW, who lost to CBK in the last presidential election, was demanding that she abolish the EPS then. CBK, who ignored this call during the first half of her second term when the government was from her party, suddenly solicited RW’s support to change the constitution (to abolish EPS) when he formed the government and became Prime Minister after the 2001 parliamentary elections. CBK tried to do get RW’s support under the pretence of forming a “National Government” of all the parties in parliament, and gave for the ostensible reason its necessity to solve the ethnic problem. Knowing CBK’s hidden agenda, RW rejected this offer and carried on with initiating the peace talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and developing the ruined economy of the country. But, time was running out for CBK and, hence, she swung into action starting last November with the takeover of important ministries, and ended up in dissolving parliament on the 7th of February and calling fresh elections to the parliament.
CBK’s Strategy
The current power struggle between the two (CBK & RW) revolves mainly around how to handle peace negotiations with the LTTE, that has been waging a guerrilla war against the Sri Lankan army for the past two decades. It was the terms of the interim agreement that Wickremesinghe was poised to sign with the LTTE in November that CBK considered to be too conciliatory. It caused Kumaratunga to step in and exercise her authority to halt the negotiations. She succeeded in this when she took over the responsibilities of 3 important ministries of RW’s government. RW responded by refusing to proceed with the peace process unless the Ministry of Defence’s responsibilities was given back to his government. Therefore, the peace process came to a halt. Once that was achieved, CBK’s plan was to either buy out some of RW’s government members to her side and form a new government or manipulate RW to support her to change the constitution and replace the EPS with an EPMS.
As the first option was out of her reach, she chose to take the second option and decided to manage it this time by scaring RW’s side that she could form an alliance with the JVP, win in a future parliamentary election and replace his government with hers. With this threat in the background, CBK tried to make a deal with RW for a cohabitation arrangement. She tried to achieve this by appointing a committee called the “Mano-Malik committee,” which had representatives from both sides. When CBK found out that RW was not yielding to her wishes she decided to really form an alliance with the JVP and formed the “United People Freedom Alliance” (UPFA) to scare RW further. When the UPFA was formed RW also started to worry and began to consider a compromise. But it was all too late.
What went wrong?
The JVP, which had been elevated to the third force in the Singhalese politics during the last few elections, has the ambition to get into governance. Therefore, the JVP has been in negotiation with CBK’s “People Alliance” (PA) during the last two years to sign a memorandum of understanding to unite as a single political group. That is the only way the JVP could taste positions in governance. Firebrands like Anura Bandaranayake (the President’s brother) of the PA, who are yet to taste the power of governance, were also promoting this political marriage. Knowing the JVP too well (they were alleged to have assassinated CBK’s husband) CBK had been postponing this political marriage. She knows too well that her policies and the JVP’s policies are poles apart and, if this marriage was to go ahead, her party will only be the loser. But when the JVP saw that CBK was in need of this marriage to scare RW, JVP members and some hardcore members of CBK’s PA started to convince CBK that, if a common alliance was formed between the two parties and if this alliance were to contest a parliamentary election, this common alliance could form a new government. CBK was trapped, and also was attracted by the possibility of ousting RW from power. Therefore she ordered the dissolution of the parliament and fresh elections.
Is the General Election a solution?
Nominations for elections have been closed now. A record number of 28 registered parties and 192 Independent Groups have filed nomination papers. A record number of 5,698 candidates are contesting for 196 parliamentary seats. In addition, each party is entitled to nominate some portion of the 29 National List members (which are allocated to parties proportionate to the percentage votes they receive at the elections) to make the total strength of the parliament 224.
This is the first time the JVP has joined one of the two major Singhalese parties to contest an election. If one goes by the behaviour of the voters in the last elections, the PA – JVP combined received a little over 1% more votes than RW’s “United National Front” (UNF). Therefore, the UPFA should be able to get the largest number of seats in parliament at the elections.
However, Buddhist monks are contesting in most of the Singhalese electorates for the first time. They claim that none of the political parties are looking after the interests of the Buddhist religion and that is why they have entered into the ring. Most probably this is why the JVP, although it is a Marxist party, for the first time is boasting that it is a party founded on Buddhist principles and culture. Attempts by CBK to meet these Buddhist monks to garner their support have failed. They have simply refused to meet her. This raises the question whether CBK’s opponents are behind these Buddhist monks.
Because all these factors are going to influence the results in the south, neither the UPFA nor UNF will get an outright majority (113 MPs) to form a new government. One or the other of these two parties will end up depending on the “Tamil National Alliance” (TNA), that is contesting in the North-East with the backing of the LTTE, to form a government. The TNA is expected to get over 20 seats in parliament and will be the third largest party in parliament.
Therefore, even if CBK’s UPFA forms the next government, she will still need RW’s UNF to change the EPS to an EPMS. CBK’s basic desire to remain in the race for the leadership of the country is not going to materialise even after the elections.
On the peace front, the JVP is insisting on renegotiating the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the government and the LTTE. LTTE has flatly refused to do so. Further, the mutual accommodation that the Prime Minister and the LTTE negotiated in the peace talks represented the best chance for a settlement. Common ground was found, concessions were made, and both sides were accommodative of the majority of the other side’s demands. It is of critical importance that, whatever the outcome of April’s polls, the peace process be kept alive and the advance made towards reaching resolution not be squandered if Sri Lanka is to move forward.
Therefore, in this author’s view, this election has become a necessary evil and nothing more.
Sydney, Australia